Economic Event · 8x/year

FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision

Source: Federal ReserveRelease: Varies, 8 scheduled meetings per yearTime: 2:00 PM ET statement, 2:30 PM ET presser

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times per year to set monetary policy, primarily the target federal funds rate. Decisions are announced at 2:00 PM ET on the second day of each two-day meeting, followed by a statement, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on four meetings per year, and a press conference by the Chair at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC meetings drive the most concentrated 30-minute volatility windows of the year. The statement, the dot plot (SEP meetings), and the press conference each move markets independently. Markets parse statement language shifts word-by-word, compare the dot plot to futures pricing, and dissect Powell's responses for dovish vs hawkish tone. Rate decisions themselves are usually priced in advance via Fed Funds futures, the surprise lives in guidance.

Why It Matters

FOMC days produce some of the most memorable market reactions of the post-GFC era. The March 2022 liftoff (first hike), the 75bps hikes of summer 2022, the December 2023 pivot that triggered the largest one-day rally in 2Y yields in a decade, and the September 2024 50bps cut all reshaped cross-asset positioning. The dot plot, released quarterly, has become as important as the rate decision itself. Market reaction often comes not from the hike/cut itself but from the shift in the median dot or dissents revealed. Powell press conferences add another layer: markets can reverse entirely from statement reaction to presser reaction within 30 minutes.

What to Watch For

•Rate decision itself, cut, hike, or hold
•Statement language changes (word-level diff)
•Dot plot (SEP meetings only) vs prior
•Dissents, direction and count
•Powell press conference tone
•Balance sheet (QT) pace changes
•Economic projections vs consensus

Market Reaction Pattern

Hawkish surprise: 2Y yields spike, curve flattens, dollar up, equities down, gold down. Dovish surprise: 2Y yields drop, curve steepens (bull steepener), dollar down, equities rip, gold up. Statement and presser can reverse each other, full reaction often takes 60-90 minutes to settle.