CONVEX
Past Release · GDP

July 2020 GDP Report

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

GDP printed at $21B, a +7.76% move from the prior reading of $19B.

Headline Reading
Real GDP
$21B
Jul 1
Prior
$19B
Absolute
+$1B
Percent
+7.76%

What to Watch For

  • Headline real GDP annualized
  • GDP deflator / GDP price index
  • Personal consumption expenditures growth
  • Private fixed investment
  • Inventory contribution
  • Net exports
  • Revisions to prior quarter

Expected Market Reaction

Muted initial reaction since GDPNow pre-prints the number. Bigger reaction when deflator diverges from expectations. Sustained GDP weakness over multiple quarters drives cyclical sector rotation and rate cut pricing.

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Related Scenarios

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