CPI (All Urban)
Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers — the headline inflation gauge.
AI Analysis
Apr 3, 2026The three-pillar structure remains intact and strengthening: (1) Energy-driven inflation shock — WTI at $104-111, +40% in 1M, flowing through PPI (+0.7% 3M, accelerating) into a CPI/PCE pipeline that has not yet absorbed the full pass-through, with 5Y breakevens at 2.57% and rising; (2) Growth deceleration — consumer sentiment at 56.6, housing stagnant, financial conditions tightening at an accelerating pace (+58.75% 1M on StL Stress Index), saving rate at 4.5% as consumers face a real income squeeze from energy costs; (3) Geopolitical supply shock embedding permanence — Operation Epic Fury is a kinetic military exchange (US strikes Iranian infrastructure, IRGC announces retaliation on US facilities), the Hormuz physical disruption tail at 20-25% probability cannot be hedged away. Second, the market is underpricing the inflation persistence risk: PCE at +0.0% 3M is giving a false sense of disinflation while PPI is accelerating. The April-June CPI prints will be the reckoning, and any surprise above 3.2% will force a violent repricing of the Fed's reaction function (cuts priced out, terminal rate re-priced higher).
About CPI (All Urban)
What Is CPI?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. It is the most widely followed inflation indicator globally.
Headline vs Core CPI
- **Headline CPI**: Includes all items, including the volatile food and energy categories - **Core CPI**: Excludes food and energy. Because food and energy prices can swing wildly due to commodity and supply shocks, core CPI is considered a better underlying signal of sustained inflation. The Fed focuses more on Core PCE, but core CPI is widely watched.
The Basket
The CPI basket is based on consumer expenditure surveys and includes hundreds of categories: - **Shelter** (~33%): Primarily Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER) and rent of primary residence - **Food** (~14%): Groceries and restaurants - **Energy** (~7%): Gasoline, electricity, natural gas - **Medical care**: Insurance, doctor services, pharmaceuticals - **Transport**: New and used vehicles, auto insurance
Shelter's Dominance and Lag
Shelter is the largest CPI component. The BLS measures it using OER — a survey-based measure that lags real-world rent changes by roughly 12–18 months. This lag made CPI appear elevated in 2023–2024 even as market rents were falling.
CPI and Market Reaction
Monthly CPI prints are among the highest-impact macro data releases. A "hot" print (above expectations) sends bond yields higher, equities lower, and the dollar up. A "cool" print does the reverse. The market typically moves most violently on the core month-over-month (MoM) figure.
Recent Data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 327.46 | +0.27% |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 326.59 | +0.17% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 326.03 | +0.30% |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 325.06 | +0.25% |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 324.25 | +0.30% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 323.29 | +0.35% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 322.17 | +0.23% |
| Jun 1, 2025 | 321.44 | +0.25% |
| May 1, 2025 | 320.62 | +0.10% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 320.3 | — |
Related in Inflation
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated monthly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.