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Bonds & Durationdaily

20Y+ Treasury (TLT)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy.

No data available

Related in Bonds & Duration

7-10Y Treasury (IEF)
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF.
1-3Y Treasury (SHY)
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF, short duration.
TIPS (TIP)
iShares TIPS Bond ETF, inflation-protected Treasuries.

Explore Further

Forecast 2026
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using scenario weighted approach.
Comparison
TLT vs IEF (Long vs Intermediate Bonds)
TLT and IEF represent different points on the Treasury curve with very different duration sensitivities. TLT moves rough...
Comparison
Long Bonds vs S&P 500
The stock-bond correlation is the most important relationship in portfolio construction. When TLT and SPY move together ...
Comparison
TIPS vs Nominal Treasuries
When TIP outperforms TLT, breakeven inflation is rising and the market expects more inflation ahead. When TLT outperform...
Comparison
Short-Term vs Long-Term Treasuries
SHY is essentially cash with minimal duration risk, while TLT carries massive duration exposure. When SHY outperforms TL...
Comparison
Bitcoin vs Long Bonds
Bitcoin and TLT both respond to rate expectations but in different ways. TLT rallies when rates fall, benefiting from du...
Comparison
Real Estate (XLRE) vs Long Treasury (TLT)
XLRE and TLT both move inversely with long rates, but XLRE adds property fundamentals (cash flows, occupancy, lease roll...
Comparison
Fed Balance Sheet vs Long Treasury (TLT)
Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) has historically supported Treasury prices by reducing long-end supply. When WALCL expa...
Comparison
IG Corporate Bonds (LQD) vs Long Treasury (TLT)
Both LQD and TLT are long-duration but LQD adds IG credit risk. When LQD outperforms TLT, credit spreads are tightening ...
Comparison
High Yield (HYG) vs Long Treasury (TLT)
HYG/TLT is one of the cleanest risk-on versus risk-off signals. HYG outperformance signals credit-cycle health, tighteni...
Comparison
Ethereum vs Long Treasury (TLT)
ETH/TLT is one of the widest-ranging risk-on versus risk-off trades because ETH is highly volatile and TLT is a pure dur...
Comparison
Long Treasury (TLT) vs Russell 2000 (IWM)
TLT and IWM have very different risk profiles: TLT is pure duration safety, IWM is high-beta equity risk. TLT outperform...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal ex...
Scenario
What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?
What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and m...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Raises Rates?
What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housin...
Scenario
What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?
What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portf...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?
What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it mea...
Scenario
What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?
What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality ...
Scenario
What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?
What happens when oil prices spike? Inflation fears, consumer squeeze, recession risk, and the complex impact on stocks,...
Scenario
What Happens When the Housing Market Crashes?
What happens when US home prices crash? The wealth effect, banking stress, and cascading economic impacts of a housing d...
Scenario
What Happens When Unemployment Rises?
What happens when the unemployment rate rises? Consumer spending impacts, market reactions, and the economic feedback lo...
Scenario
What Happens When Gold Surges?
What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio imp...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?
What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into tradit...
Scenario
What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?
What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the glob...
Scenario
What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?
What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?
What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, a...
Scenario
What Happens When Copper Surges?
What happens when copper prices surge? Why "Dr. Copper" is the economy's best diagnostician, and what it means for equit...
Scenario
What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%?
What happens when the stock market enters a bear market? Historical patterns, recovery timelines, asset class reactions,...
Scenario
What Happens When Gold Hits $3,000?
What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications ...
Scenario
What Happens When Initial Jobless Claims Spike?
What happens when weekly jobless claims surge? The highest-frequency recession indicator, what levels matter, and how ma...
Scenario
What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?
What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice whe...
Scenario
What Happens When Consumer Confidence Collapses?
What happens when consumer sentiment craters? Does it actually predict spending? Historical analysis of confidence crash...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Steepens Sharply?
What happens when the yield curve steepens rapidly? Bull steepener vs bear steepener, recession timing, and the implicat...
Scenario
What Happens When Credit Spreads Hit Record Tights?
What happens when high yield credit spreads compress to historically tight levels? The risks of complacency in corporate...
Scenario
What Happens When the Trade Deficit Widens Sharply?
What happens when the US trade deficit surges? Dollar implications, tariff risk, manufacturing impact, and what it signa...
Scenario
What Happens When Banks Tighten Lending Standards?
What happens when banks pull back on lending? How tighter credit standards predict recessions, default waves, and the tr...
Scenario
What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?
What happens when the money supply shrinks? Monetarist deflation fears, historical rarity, and implications for asset pr...
Scenario
What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan?
What happens when China devalues its currency? Global deflation export, emerging market contagion, commodity impact, and...
Scenario
What Happens When ISM Manufacturing Drops Below 45?
What happens when the manufacturing sector enters deep contraction? Historical recession correlation, supply chain effec...
Scenario
What Happens When Financial Conditions Tighten?
What happens when the Chicago Fed NFCI signals tight financial conditions? How credit conditions transmit through the ec...
Scenario
What Happens When Breakeven Inflation Crashes?
What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals...
Scenario
What Happens When the Savings Rate Hits Zero?
What happens when Americans stop saving? The consumer spending cliff, credit card debt explosion, and what it means when...
Scenario
What Happens When Speculative Positioning Hits Extremes?
What happens when futures market positioning hits extreme levels? Contrarian signals, crowded trade risks, and how CFTC ...
Scenario
What Happens When Emerging Market Currencies Crash?
What happens when emerging market currencies collapse? Contagion risk, capital flight, commodity impact, and whether EM ...
Scenario
What Happens When Natural Gas Spikes?
What happens when natural gas prices spike? Winter heating costs, electricity prices, fertilizer costs, and the cascadin...
Scenario
What Happens When GDP Contracts?
What happens to markets, policy, and the economy when real GDP contracts? Historical playbook for recession quarters, wi...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Exceeds 1.0?
The Sahm Rule triggers recession alerts when unemployment rises 0.5 points. What happens when it exceeds 1.0, signaling ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Leading Economic Index Turns Negative?
The Leading Economic Index anticipates recessions by 6-12 months. What happens when its six-month change turns negative,...
Scenario
What Happens When U-6 Unemployment Exceeds 10%?
U-6 captures broader labor underutilization beyond the headline rate. What happens when it exceeds 10%, signaling widesp...
Scenario
What Happens When Capacity Utilization Falls Below 75%?
Industrial capacity utilization below 75% signals excess factory slack. What happens to inflation, earnings, and policy ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Put-Call Ratio Spikes Above 1.2?
Put-call ratios above 1.2 signal extreme fear and hedging demand. What happens when put options demand dramatically exce...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Recession Probability Index Spikes?
What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicator...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?
What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed b...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?
What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call...
Scenario
What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative?
What happens when Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) turn negative? Recession confirmation, Fed response, and historical market reac...
Scenario
What Happens When Job Openings Collapse?
What happens when JOLTS job openings collapse? Labor market weakness, Fed response, and implications for wage growth and...
Scenario
What Happens When the Quits Rate Collapses?
What happens when the JOLTS quits rate collapses below 2.0%? Loss of worker confidence, wage growth deceleration, and re...
Scenario
What Happens When the Labor Force Participation Rate Drops?
What happens when the labor force participation rate drops sharply? Implications for structural growth, unemployment mea...
Scenario
What Happens When Average Weekly Hours Collapse?
What happens when average weekly hours worked collapse? Early warning of labor demand weakness before layoffs begin....
Scenario
What Happens When Continuing Jobless Claims Surge?
What happens when continuing unemployment claims surge above 2.0M? Signal that unemployed workers are having trouble fin...
Scenario
What Happens When Real GDP Turns Negative?
What happens when real GDP contracts? Recession definition, Fed response, and historical market behavior during negative...
Scenario
What Happens When Wage Growth Accelerates Above 5%?
What happens when average hourly earnings accelerate above 5% year-over-year? Fed response, inflation implications, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Energy CPI Spikes?
What happens when energy CPI spikes 20%+ year-over-year? Consumer spending impact, inflation expectations, and recession...
Scenario
What Happens When Food Inflation Surges Above 10%?
What happens when food CPI surges above 10%? Consumer sentiment impact, political consequences, and recession risk from ...
Scenario
What Happens When Shelter CPI Peaks?
What happens when shelter CPI peaks and begins decelerating? Disinflation implications, Fed response, and market reactio...
Scenario
What Happens When PPI Turns Negative?
What happens when Producer Price Index turns negative? Deflation risk, margin implications, and the leading signal for C...
Scenario
What Happens When Fed Funds Rate Exceeds 6%?
What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents fro...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Reverse Repo Facility Drains to Zero?
What happens when the Fed RRP facility drains? Liquidity implications, money market dynamics, and impact on bank reserve...
Scenario
What Happens When Bank Lending Standards Tighten Sharply?
What happens when banks sharply tighten lending standards? Credit contraction effects, business investment decline, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Credit Card Delinquencies Spike?
What happens when credit card delinquencies spike? Consumer stress, retail impact, and bank earnings implications....
Scenario
What Happens When the Japanese Yen Weakens Past 160?
What happens when USDJPY exceeds 160? BoJ intervention risk, carry trade unwinds, and global market implications....
Scenario
What Happens When Defensive Sectors Lead the Market?
What happens when staples (XLP) sharply outperform discretionary (XLY)? Recession signal, defensive positioning, and sec...
Scenario
What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?
What happens when regional bank stocks (KRE) drop sharply? Deposit flight risk, commercial real estate exposure, and Fed...
Scenario
What Happens When Home Builder Stocks Collapse?
What happens when home builder stocks (XHB) collapse? Housing demand destruction, recession signals, and Fed rate implic...
Scenario
What Happens When Retail Sales Contract?
What happens when retail sales contract for 3+ consecutive months? Consumer weakness signal, recession confirmation, and...
Scenario
What Happens When Durable Goods Orders Plummet?
What happens when durable goods orders plummet? Capex signal, manufacturing weakness, and investment cycle implications....
Scenario
What Happens When Housing Starts Collapse?
What happens when housing starts collapse below 1.1M? Housing cycle bottom signals, construction employment impact, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Corporate Profits Peak?
What happens when corporate profits peak and begin declining? Earnings recession signal, equity market implications, and...
Scenario
What Happens When Industrial Production Declines?
What happens when industrial production declines for multiple months? Manufacturing recession signals, cyclical sector i...
Scenario
What Happens When the Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Spikes?
What happens when business inventories rise sharply relative to sales? Destocking signal, production cuts, and recession...
Scenario
What Happens When Real Personal Income Declines?
What happens when real disposable personal income declines? Consumer spending implications, savings rate changes, and re...
Scenario
What Happens When VSTOXX European Volatility Spikes?
What happens when VSTOXX European volatility exceeds 35? European stress signal, global spillover risk, and ECB policy i...

Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy.
▶How often is 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) updated?
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) data?
Convex sources 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) data from live market data providers including CoinGecko for crypto and major exchanges for equities and commodities. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) chart page?
The 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.

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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.