Bitcoin vs Long Bonds
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Bitcoin and TLT both respond to rate expectations but in different ways. TLT rallies when rates fall, benefiting from duration. Bitcoin rallies when real rates fall and liquidity expands, benefiting from the monetary debasement narrative. When both rally, it signals a strong dovish shift. When Bitcoin rises and TLT falls, the market is pricing in inflation that undermines bonds but supports hard assets.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs Bitcoin (bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency and macro risk-on barometer) against 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the cross asset pair relationship. Policy interventions can synthetically reshape the Bitcoin-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) spread, most notably when central banks buy specific asset classes. Cross-asset pairs like Bitcoin against 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) surface the macro variables that traverse asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite.
The connection between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) runs through shared macro drivers, and isolating the spread decomposes common factors from idiosyncratic noise. Cross-asset flows trail macro regime changes with well-documented lags, which is why spreads like Bitcoin-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) often precede coincident indicators. Policy-driven transitions inject sudden repricing into the Bitcoin-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) relationship because the two markets react to policy guidance on different timescales.
Tactical allocators rebalance across the Bitcoin-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) spread based on where each asset sits relative to its model anchor. Bitcoin belongs to the Crypto space, whereas 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) belongs to Bonds & Duration, and the interaction between those two worlds is where the notable macro information resides.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Bitcoin typically lead 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Bitcoin tends to lead 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Bitcoin precede corresponding moves in 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Bitcoin-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Divergence between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Bitcoin or 20Y+ Treasury (TLT).
Is Bitcoin a hedge for 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Bitcoin and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Bitcoin-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.