TLT vs IEF (Long vs Intermediate Bonds)
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
TLT and IEF represent different points on the Treasury curve with very different duration sensitivities. TLT moves roughly 2-3x more than IEF for the same rate change. When TLT underperforms IEF, the market is repricing long-end rates higher, often on inflation or fiscal supply concerns. The relative performance reveals where bond market stress is concentrated.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Before getting to the spread, note what each leg actually represents: 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy, and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) is iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Credit quality provides the backing for 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) in a way that is categorically different from how 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) derives its safe-haven status. During policy pivots the first of 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) or 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) to rally often tells the allocator which regime the market is pricing next.
Allocators who treat 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) as interchangeable safe havens miss the point; the distinction between them is exactly the trade. The coupling between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) broke in 2022 when both sold off as real yields surged, forcing portfolios to reconsider what safe-haven exposure really means. Policy pivots inject directional volatility into the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-7-10Y Treasury (IEF) spread because each asset picks up a different aspect of the easing cycle.
Tail-risk portfolios size positions in both 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) to cover different parts of the stress distribution rather than over-concentrate in a single form of defense. The ratio between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) serves as a regime diagnostic in risk-parity and volatility-targeting strategies.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF)?+
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) are connected through real yields, currency dynamics, and flight-to-quality flows. When real yield and dollar conditions shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) typically lead 7-10Y Treasury (IEF)?+
20Y+ Treasury (TLT) tends to lead 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) during the opening moves of crisis episodes, before flight-to-quality fully develops. In those periods, moves in 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) precede corresponding moves in 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) varies by regime. Safe havens often move together in broad flight-to-quality episodes but diverge sharply in specific inflation or deflation regimes. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-7-10Y Treasury (IEF) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF)?+
Divergence between 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) and 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) typically arises from central bank policy on specific safe havens, currency debasement concerns, or shifts in reserve currency demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) or 7-10Y Treasury (IEF).
Is 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) a hedge for 7-10Y Treasury (IEF)?+
Safe havens hedge different risks. 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) hedges against some stress scenarios while 7-10Y Treasury (IEF) hedges against others, and holding both addresses more of the risk space than either one alone. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)-7-10Y Treasury (IEF) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.