Ethereum vs Long Treasury (TLT)
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
ETH/TLT is one of the widest-ranging risk-on versus risk-off trades because ETH is highly volatile and TLT is a pure duration asset. ETH outperformance signals extreme risk appetite and crypto-specific catalysts. TLT outperformance coincides with ETH drawdowns and typically accompanies broader risk-off moves in equities.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs Ethereum (ethereum spot price, the leading smart contract platform token) against 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, long-duration rates proxy) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the cross asset pair relationship. Analysts merge Ethereum with 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) to build cross-asset indicators that are more difficult to game than any single-market series. Macro funds use the Ethereum-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) spread to express views cleaner than single-asset trades, pinpointing the particular macro factor they want to bet on.
The Crypto and Bonds & Duration segments hold in common common drivers but split in sensitivity, and the Ethereum-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) spread captures those sensitivities. Ethereum belongs to the Crypto space, and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) belongs to Bonds & Duration, and the interaction between those two worlds is where the relevant macro information lives. Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) come from different asset classes, and the linkage between them encodes cross-asset macro dynamics that neither alone can convey.
Correlation trading desks mark options on the Ethereum-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) spread once the core relationship has been mapped across adequate regimes. Cross-asset flows track macro regime changes with characteristic lags, which is why spreads like Ethereum-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) often lead coincident indicators.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Ethereum typically lead 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Ethereum tends to lead 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Ethereum precede corresponding moves in 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Ethereum-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Divergence between Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Ethereum or 20Y+ Treasury (TLT).
Is Ethereum a hedge for 20Y+ Treasury (TLT)?+
Cross-asset hedges between Ethereum and 20Y+ Treasury (TLT) work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Ethereum-20Y+ Treasury (TLT) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.