Economic Event · monthly

New Residential Sales

Source: Census BureauRelease: ~24th-27th of monthTime: 10:00 AM ET

The Census Bureau releases new home sales monthly, around the 24th-27th, at 10:00 AM ET. The report covers sales of newly built single-family homes and includes data on prices, inventory, and months of supply. New home sales are a leading indicator of construction activity, employment, and materials demand. Unlike existing home sales, new sales are recorded at contract signing (not closing), making them more forward-looking. The data is notoriously volatile with large confidence intervals, so the trend matters more than any single month. New home sales also respond more quickly to mortgage rate changes than existing sales because there is no lock-in effect constraining supply.

Why It Matters

New home sales have historically been one of the earliest signals of housing downturns. Sales peaked in January 2006, more than a year before the broader housing market collapse became apparent. In the 2022-2023 rate shock, new home sales initially plunged but recovered faster than existing sales as builders offered mortgage rate buydowns, effectively subsidizing demand.

What to Watch For

•Sales pace (annualized)
•Median and average sale price
•Months of supply at current pace
•Cancellation rate (builder confidence proxy)
•Revision to prior month (often large)

Market Reaction Pattern

Strong sales: homebuilders rally, lumber and copper up. Weak sales: homebuilders sell off, but sometimes rates fall (growth concern), creating a cross-current. Months of supply above 8-9 signals severe oversupply.