Economic Event · monthly

Existing Home Sales

Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR)Release: ~20th-22nd of monthTime: 10:00 AM ET

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases existing home sales monthly, around the 20th-22nd, at 10:00 AM ET. The report covers sales of previously owned homes, which account for roughly 85-90% of all home sales. Existing home sales are the broadest measure of housing market activity. Unlike housing starts (which measure new construction), existing sales capture the secondary market where most Americans buy and sell homes. The data is a coincident-to-lagging indicator of housing demand because closings reflect contracts signed 1-2 months earlier. The report includes median price, months of supply (inventory), and regional breakdowns.

Why It Matters

Existing home sales fell from a 6.5M annualized pace in January 2022 to 4.0M by late 2023, one of the sharpest declines on record, driven by the "lock-in effect" where homeowners with sub-4% mortgages refused to sell and take on a 7%+ rate. This created a supply freeze that kept prices elevated even as volume collapsed.

What to Watch For

•Sales pace (annualized, seasonally adjusted)
•Median sale price (year-over-year)
•Months of supply (inventory indicator)
•First-time buyer share
•Cash sales percentage (investor activity)

Market Reaction Pattern

Falling sales + rising prices: stagflation dynamic for housing, confusing for rates. Rising sales + stable prices: normalization, homebuilders rally. Supply crossing 6 months historically marks the shift from seller to buyer market.