Economic Event · monthly

Durable Goods Orders

Source: Census BureauRelease: ~26th of monthTime: 8:30 AM ET

The Census Bureau releases the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders about 3-4 weeks after the reference month, around the 26th, at 8:30 AM ET. The report measures new orders for goods expected to last 3+ years. Durable goods orders are a key proxy for business investment intentions. The headline number is volatile because it includes defense and aircraft orders (Boeing contract lumps). The market focuses on "core" durable goods orders, which strip out defense and transportation. Core orders map closely to the nonresidential fixed investment component of GDP and serve as a forward indicator of capex cycles.

Why It Matters

Core durable goods orders peaked in mid-2022 and stalled through 2023, confirming that higher rates were suppressing business investment even as consumer spending held up. The capex freeze was particularly visible in non-tech manufacturing, while AI-related capital spending partially offset the weakness.

What to Watch For

•Headline durable goods orders (volatile)
•Core orders ex-defense, ex-transportation (capex signal)
•Shipments trend (current output)
•Unfilled orders backlog
•Revisions to prior month

Market Reaction Pattern

Strong core orders: cyclicals up, rates up (growth signal). Weak core orders: defensives outperform, rates down. Headline swings on Boeing orders are typically ignored by markets.