Global Oil Supply

WTI at $74.86 and Brent at $79.65 were up nearly 5% with the New York session still open, while high yield spreads sit at 2.70, the tightest reading in the feed. June CPI lands on Tuesday.

WTI at 74.05 sits 3.95 below the gate that flips the oil view bullish. The disinflationary impulse the bond market leans on is eroding whether or not that gate is ever reached.

The Islamic Republic's 36-year power structure collapses overnight, and no market has priced a single basis point of it yet.

A drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure near St. Petersburg lands with no live market to absorb it, Monday reprices everything.

The VIX sits near 16 while Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reads 15. That gap is June’s rates shock showing up in the one asset built to feel it first.

The cartel just approved a fourth straight production hike. With the Strait of Hormuz still closed and the UAE gone, the quota is a number on paper, not a barrel in a tanker.

Hormuz has been shut since February, yet Brent dropped 20% toward $71 as the risk premium bled out. That gap between a closed chokepoint and a falling price is the whole scenario.

A military stand-down mid-operation is not de-escalation, it's a negotiating move with a price tag measured in barrels.

Contradictory ceasefire signals leave Hormuz risk unresolved and oil markets in limbo

U.S. military convoy protection for neutral shipping rewrites the Persian Gulf risk calculus overnight.