Iran

The Islamic Republic's 36-year power structure collapses overnight, and no market has priced a single basis point of it yet.

A military stand-down mid-operation is not de-escalation, it's a negotiating move with a price tag measured in barrels.

Contradictory ceasefire signals leave Hormuz risk unresolved and oil markets in limbo

A prolonged U.S. naval blockade of Iran would remove roughly 1.5–2 mb/d from a market already running tight on OPEC+ discipline.

With Brent above $101 and talks stalled, the supply-risk premium is repricing in real time

Markets are pricing a fragile truce; the data says the risk premium is still too thin

Markets are frozen at Friday's close, the repricing queue is building in silence.

With Brent already at $97 and physical WTI near $114, a naval blockade removes ambiguity about the supply shock direction.

A Treasury Secretary linking war risk to rate guidance is either bold coordination or a very public shove.

A hold with geopolitical carve-out language locks the Fed into paralysis, and markets haven't priced it yet.