Iran

A military stand-down mid-operation is not de-escalation, it's a negotiating move with a price tag measured in barrels.

Contradictory ceasefire signals leave Hormuz risk unresolved and oil markets in limbo

A prolonged U.S. naval blockade of Iran would remove roughly 1.5–2 mb/d from a market already running tight on OPEC+ discipline.

With Brent above $101 and talks stalled, the supply-risk premium is repricing in real time

Markets are pricing a fragile truce; the data says the risk premium is still too thin

A strait that reopens under threat of re-closure is not a strait that's open, markets will price that distinction Monday.

Markets are frozen at Friday's close, the repricing queue is building in silence.

With Brent already at $97 and physical WTI near $114, a naval blockade removes ambiguity about the supply shock direction.

Hormuz, Hungary, and Iran talks hit the tape together; the oil short-squeeze thesis just got complicated.

Pentagon confirms zero transits; WTI at $91.72 is not the ceiling, it's the floor.