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Yield Curve & Ratesdaily

10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds

Spread of 10-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; an alternative yield-curve recession gauge with longer record.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds is currently 84 bps, last updated .

84 bps
1W +1.20%1M -20.00%3M +1.20%
Updated 1h ago
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Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds, blended across current macro regimes.
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Interest rates set the price of money and ripple through every asset class. An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s, making this the single most-watched corner of fixed income. Monitoring rate differentials, real yields, and forward expectations helps traders anticipate risk-on or risk-off regime shifts.

Updated 1h ago

Recent Data

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DateValueChange
Jun 15, 202684 bps-2.33%
Jun 12, 202686 bps+3.61%
Jun 11, 202683 bps-10.75%
Jun 10, 202693 bps+2.20%
Jun 9, 202691 bps-3.19%
Jun 8, 202694 bps+1.08%
Jun 5, 202693 bps+9.41%
Jun 4, 202685 bps-2.30%
Jun 3, 202687 bps+3.57%
Jun 2, 202684 bps-1.18%
Jun 1, 202685 bps+2.41%
May 29, 202683 bps+0.00%
May 28, 202683 bps-3.49%
May 27, 202686 bps-2.27%
May 26, 202688 bps-6.38%
May 22, 202694 bps-1.05%
May 21, 202695 bps+0.00%
May 20, 202695 bps-9.52%
May 19, 2026105 bps+7.14%
May 18, 202698 bps+2.08%
May 15, 202696 bps+14.29%
May 14, 202684 bps+1.20%
May 13, 202683 bps+0.00%
May 12, 202683 bps—

Related in Yield Curve & Rates

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Yield on 3-month US Treasury bill, the shortest benchmark maturity on the curve.
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Yield on 1-year US Treasury constant maturity securities.
2Y Treasury Yield
Yield on 2-year US Treasury, key Fed expectations proxy.
5Y Treasury Yield
Yield on 5-year US Treasury constant maturity securities.

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Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds?
Spread of 10-year Treasury yield over the effective federal funds rate; an alternative yield-curve recession gauge with longer record.
▶How does 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds relate to yield curve & rates?
10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds is part of the Yield Curve & Rates category. Interest rates set the price of money and ripple through every asset class. An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s, making this the single most-watched corner of fixed income. Monitoring rate differentials, real yields, and forward expectations helps traders anticipate risk-on or risk-off regime shifts.
▶How often is 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds updated?
10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds data?
Convex sources 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds chart page?
The 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.