10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 6,250 observations of 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Δ = divergence from +0.1% unconditional all-history average
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 251 | 575.88% | 1445.79% | 0.40 | 48.2% | 575.00% |
| 3Y | 750 | 37.76% | 1319.45% | 0.03 | 46.9% | 161.29% |
| 5Y | 1,250 | -13.84% | 1088.71% | -0.01 | 48.2% | -52.50% |
| 10Y | 2,500 | -6.64% | 911.37% | -0.01 | 45.9% | -49.67% |
| All | 6,250 | 0.11% | 1125.60% | 0.00 | 45.8% | 2.70% |
Annualized total return = (1 + total)^(1/years) - 1. Ret/Vol is the annualized return divided by annualized volatility (Sharpe-equivalent without risk-free subtraction). Hit % = pct of single periods that were positive.
Where We Are Now[03]
Forward Returns by Macro Regime[04]
How 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds has performed historically conditional on the prevailing macro regime. The current bucket is highlighted; +1Y averages drive the headline signal above.
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (<15) | 2,082 | 1.36% | -19.97% | 24.40% | -14.52% | 33.8% |
| Normal (15-25) | 3,026 | -1.81% | 21.54% | 106.01% | -10.36% | 41.1% |
| Elevated (25-40) | 940 | 19.74% | 41.80% | 128.80% | 9.96% | 55.5% |
| Extreme (>40) | 191 | 19.38% | 26.23% | 84.63% | 38.80% | 83.8% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverted (<0bps) | 782 | -47.29% | -118.96% | -64.99% | 25.52% | 58.1% |
| Flat (0-100bps) | 2,116 | 17.45% | 52.06% | 257.68% | -7.35% | 46.0% |
| Steep (>100bps) | 3,352 | 6.03% | 16.16% | 16.49% | -10.43% | 36.4% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight (<350bps) | 908 | 15.68% | 101.98% | 99.50% | 45.71% | 59.1% |
| Normal (350-500bps) | 1,369 | 7.74% | -50.48% | 120.96% | -17.24% | 37.6% |
| Stressed (>500bps) | 552 | -0.33% | 1.66% | 24.59% | -2.66% | 44.9% |
| REGIME BUCKET | N | +30D | +90D | +1Y AVG | +1Y MED | HIT % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak (bottom tercile) | 982 | 12.46% | 125.42% | 375.50% | 50.76% | 56.2% |
| Neutral (middle) | 1,230 | 12.28% | 70.00% | -0.11% | -7.25% | 39.3% |
| Strong (top tercile) | 2,596 | 3.37% | -25.07% | 99.12% | -6.12% | 43.4% |
Forward returns are forward-looking from each historical observation in the bucket; +252d corresponds to one trading year. Buckets with fewer than 5 forward-return observations are reported as n/a. These are conditional historical averages, not forecasts.
Lead-Lag Relationships[05]
For each universally-recognised leading indicator, the lag at which the daily-return correlation peaks. Positive lag means the anchor leads 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds; negative means it lags.
| ANCHOR | ROLE | PEAK LAG | PEAK CORR | ZERO-LAG | RELATIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFCI | Financial conditions | -23d | -0.662 | 0.019 | lags target by 23d |
| Initial Jobless Claims | Labor leader | -24d | -0.178 | -0.002 | lags target by 24d |
| HY OAS Spread | Credit risk leader | 0d | -0.125 | -0.125 | weak |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Discount-rate driver | 0d | 0.108 | 0.108 | weak |
| Baa-10Y Spread | Credit risk (slow) | +46d | -0.064 | -0.062 | weak |
| Copper | Global growth proxy | -26d | 0.047 | 0.023 | weak |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | Recession leader | +60d | -0.046 | 0.034 | weak |
| VIX | Volatility leader | -13d | -0.045 | -0.031 | weak |
| Trade-Weighted Dollar | FX driver | -18d | 0.032 | -0.005 | weak |
| U-Mich Consumer Sentiment | Survey leader | 0d | 0.000 | 0.000 | weak |
Pearson correlation of daily returns over up to 25 years of overlapping history, searched across a ±60-day lag grid. Indicators classified as “weak” don't have meaningful predictive power at daily resolution; many of these (yield curve, NFCI, sentiment) lead at monthly/quarterly horizons instead.
Historical Analogs[06]
Periods where 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds sat at a similar percentile rank to today, with what happened over the next 30 / 90 / 252 trading days. Analogs are clustered to avoid double-counting nearby dates.
| DATE | VALUE | +30D | +90D | +1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2022 | 1.1700 | -135.04% | -151.28% | -140.17% |
| Jul 26, 2022 | 1.2300 | -23.58% | -118.70% | -211.38% |
| Dec 20, 2021 | 1.3500 | 25.93% | 89.63% | -148.89% |
| Sep 21, 2021 | 1.2500 | 21.60% | 38.40% | -51.20% |
| Jun 22, 2021 | 1.3800 | -21.01% | 7.25% | 12.32% |
Worst Historical Drawdown[07]
Cross-Asset Correlations · 1Y[08]
Largest Single-Period Moves[09]
- Apr 4, 20061000.00%
- Jan 28, 20081000.00%
- Dec 31, 2007880.00%
- Apr 21, 2025800.00%
- Aug 14, 2007733.33%
- Oct 1, 2007-3700.00%
- Aug 16, 2007-1750.00%
- Mar 10, 2025-1000.00%
- May 23, 2019-800.00%
- Oct 17, 2007-550.00%
Calendar-Month Seasonality[10]
Average single-period return aggregated by the calendar month in which the period ended.
| MONTH | AVG RETURN | HIT % | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 2.63% | 45.5% | 508 |
| February | -0.82% | 48.0% | 479 |
| March | -3.06% | 47.7% | 545 |
| April | 4.78% | 48.3% | 526 |
| May | -1.09% | 43.6% | 525 |
| June | -0.80% | 43.4% | 528 |
| July | 0.93% | 42.0% | 529 |
| August | -3.77% | 42.9% | 552 |
| September | 0.72% | 46.5% | 508 |
| October | -5.63% | 50.9% | 529 |
| November | -1.16% | 42.1% | 487 |
| December | 4.41% | 48.5% | 526 |
N = 6,250 OBS · GENERATED 2026-05-03 06:30Z
Forecast Approach
scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. The projection above is the sample-weighted central estimate across current macro regime anchors; the scenario list below adds qualitative context.
Consensus source: Fed dot plot and futures market
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Federal Reserve policy
- •Inflation expectations
- •Economic growth
- •Global yield differentials
- •Treasury supply
Historical Volatility
Moderate: typically 50-150bps annual range
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds depend on the current macro regime. Interest rates set the price of money and ripple through every asset class. An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s, making this the single most-watched corner of fixed income. Monitoring rate differentials, real yields, and forward expectations helps traders anticipate risk-on or risk-off regime shifts. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Yield Curve & Rates category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds?▾
Historical ranges for 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds vary dramatically by regime. A level that is extreme in Goldilocks can be routine in Stagflation, and vice versa. The Historical Volatility section on this page describes the typical range and regime-specific behavior. For the full multi-decade history, visit the 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds chart page, which includes selectable time ranges up to five years and downloadable data.
How often is the 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds forecast updated?▾
This forecast page recalculates whenever the underlying data or regime classification changes, typically within hours of new data releases. The scenario probabilities refresh daily as the macro state is regenerated. Specific drivers listed on this page reflect the current state of the Convex regime engine, not static historical assumptions.
Is this forecast actionable for trading?▾
Convex forecasts are informational and educational. They describe probability distributions and regime-conditional paths rather than specific entry and exit levels. Traders and portfolio managers use them alongside other inputs including position sizing rules, risk management, and their own conviction calibration. They are not investment advice.
Get forecast updates for 10Y Treasury minus Fed Funds and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.