Historical Year Data · 2025

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator in 2025

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator opened 2025 at 0.37% and closed at 0.35%, a -5.41% move for the year. The high of 0.43% was reached on November 1, and the low of 0.10% on July 1.

Open

0.37%

2025-01

0.35%

11 data points

High

0.43%

Nov 1

Low

0.10%

Jul 1

Full Year Change

-5.41%

2024 Change

+100.00%

Monthly Breakdown

Month	Open	Close	High	Low	Change
Jan	0.37%	0.37%	0.37%	0.37%	+0.00%
Feb	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	+0.00%
Mar	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	+0.00%
Apr	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	+0.00%
May	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	0.27%	+0.00%
Jun	0.17%	0.17%	0.17%	0.17%	+0.00%
Jul	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	+0.00%
Aug	0.13%	0.13%	0.13%	0.13%	+0.00%
Sep	0.23%	0.23%	0.23%	0.23%	+0.00%
Nov	0.43%	0.43%	0.43%	0.43%	+0.00%
Dec	0.35%	0.35%	0.35%	0.35%	+0.00%

Events During 2025

2025 US Tariff Shock

Stagflation

February – April 2025

The Trump administration imposed reciprocal tariffs averaging 25% on most trading partners in February-April 2025. Markets priced the most aggressive trade policy shift since 1930, with ripple effects across currencies, bond yields, and supply chains.

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