CONVEX
Historical Event · 2023Mixed Regime

2023 Silicon Valley Bank Collapse

March 2023· Analysis last reviewed

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10, 2023, the second-largest bank failure in US history. The Fed's response redefined liquidity backstops for the banking system.

What Happened

Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in March 2023 was the first banking crisis of the new rate regime. SVB held $175 billion in deposits concentrated in venture-backed tech companies. As rates rose in 2022, two problems compounded: (1) SVB's $120B bond portfolio lost mark-to-market value (though held-to-maturity accounting hid the losses), and (2) SVB's depositor base, venture-backed startups burning cash, began withdrawing funds as VC funding dried up. The bank run was unprecedented in speed. On Thursday March 9, depositors withdrew $42 billion in a single day, 25% of the bank's deposits. The concentrated, uninsured, and digitally-connected depositor base created a run dynamic no previous bank had experienced. By Friday morning, SVB was seized by regulators. Signature Bank followed on Sunday. The Fed's response, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), let banks borrow against Treasury collateral at par value instead of mark-to-market. This was a fundamental change to the liquidity backstop: banks no longer had to realize losses on underwater bond portfolios during a liquidity event. The Treasury and FDIC invoked the systemic risk exception to guarantee all uninsured deposits at SVB and Signature. The crisis was contained within weeks but had durable implications. Regional bank stocks remained impaired. First Republic Bank was seized and sold to JPMorgan in May 2023. Bank lending standards tightened significantly. The Fed pivoted messaging to acknowledge financial stability alongside inflation as dual considerations. The commercial real estate exposure of small and mid-sized banks remained a slow-burning concern.

Timeline

  1. 2023-03-08
    SVB announces $1.8B loss on bond sale; stock drops 60% after hours
  2. 2023-03-09
    Depositors withdraw $42B in one day
  3. 2023-03-10
    FDIC seizes SVB
  4. 2023-03-12
    Fed announces BTFP; Treasury backstops all uninsured deposits
  5. 2023-03-12
    Signature Bank seized
  6. 2023-03-19
    UBS acquires Credit Suisse in emergency deal
  7. 2023-05-01
    First Republic Bank sold to JPMorgan

Asset Performance

2Y Treasury Yield
-110bps in 3 days

Largest 3-day drop in 2Y yields since 1987.

VIX
Spiked to 30

VIX briefly spiked then normalized.

Broad market absorbed the shock as Fed put was reaffirmed.

Lessons Learned

  • Digital bank runs are faster than any previous era.
  • Concentrated depositor bases are a fragility source invisible until stressed.
  • Held-to-maturity accounting hides duration risk but doesn't eliminate it.
  • The Fed will invent new facilities during liquidity events.
  • Uninsured deposits are effectively insured if banks are large enough.

How Today Compares

  • Regional bank deposit flows and unrealized losses
  • Commercial real estate refinancing stress
  • Bank CDS spread widening
  • BTFP usage levels and program renewal

Affected Countries

Related Events

Get real-time analysis of unfolding events, before consensus forms.