Historical Year Data · 2022
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability in 2022
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability opened 2022 at 9.00 and closed at 48.00, a +433.33% move for the year. The high of 53.00 was reached on December 17, and the low of 6.00 on January 3.
Open
9.00
2022-01
Close
48.00
365 data points
High
53.00
Dec 17
Low
6.00
Jan 3
Full Year Change
+433.33%
2021 Change
-79.07%
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 9.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | 6.00 | +233.33% |
| Feb | 26.00 | 39.00 | 39.00 | 24.00 | +50.00% |
| Mar | 38.00 | 33.00 | 44.00 | 31.00 | -13.16% |
| Apr | 34.00 | 37.00 | 37.00 | 27.00 | +8.82% |
| May | 37.00 | 36.00 | 42.00 | 34.00 | -2.70% |
| Jun | 35.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 35.00 | +28.57% |
| Jul | 45.00 | 49.00 | 49.00 | 45.00 | +8.89% |
| Aug | 50.00 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 45.00 | +0.00% |
| Sep | 48.00 | 43.00 | 48.00 | 39.00 | -10.42% |
| Oct | 46.00 | 38.00 | 47.00 | 37.00 | -17.39% |
| Nov | 38.00 | 46.00 | 48.00 | 38.00 | +21.05% |
| Dec | 46.00 | 48.00 | 53.00 | 46.00 | +4.35% |
Events During 2022
2022 Fed Rate Hiking Cycle
Stagflation
March–December 2022
The Fed raised rates 425bps in 2022, the fastest hiking cycle since the Volcker era. The 60/40 portfolio posted its worst year since 1937.
2022 UK Mini-Budget & Gilt Crisis
Stagflation
September 23 – October 14, 2022
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's September 23, 2022 mini-budget triggered a collapse in sterling and gilts. LDI pension strategies faced forced liquidation. The Bank of England intervened to prevent financial instability.
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