CONVEX

Labor Market Dashboard

The labor market dashboard combines leading and lagging employment indicators. Initial jobless claims and the Sahm Rule provide early warning of labor market deterioration. The headline unemployment rate (U3) and underemployment rate (U6) measure the current state. Nonfarm payrolls track the pace of job creation. Comparing the leading and lagging signals reveals whether the labor market is turning.

Unemployment Rate (U3)Initial Claims 4-Week MASahm Rule Recession IndicatorNonfarm PayrollsUnderemployment Rate (U6)
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Why these indicators

Initial claims are the most timely labor indicator (weekly, leading). The Sahm Rule has a perfect track record identifying recession starts. U3, U6, and payrolls provide the lagging confirmation. Together they show the full employment cycle.

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