5Y Breakeven Inflation

The three-pillar structure remains intact and strengthening: (1) Energy-driven inflation shock — WTI at $104-111, +40% in 1M, flowing through PPI (+0.7% 3M, accelerating) into a CPI/PCE pipeline that has not yet absorbed the full pass-through, with 5Y breakevens at 2.57% and rising; (2) Growth deceleration — consumer sentiment at 56.6, housing stagnant, financial conditions tightening at an accelerating pace (+58.75% 1M on StL Stress Index), saving rate at 4.5% as consumers face a real income squeeze from energy costs; (3) Geopolitical supply shock embedding permanence — Operation Epic Fury is a kinetic military exchange (US strikes Iranian infrastructure, IRGC announces retaliation on US facilities), the Hormuz physical disruption tail at 20-25% probability cannot be hedged away. The 5Y breakeven at 2.57% (+11bp 1M) shows markets starting to price more persistent inflation but have not yet fully priced a $111 WTI sustained scenario into long-run expectations.

Recent Data