Recession Probability Index vs Sahm Rule
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Both are recession-probability signals but from different data. CRPI aggregates multiple indicators while the Sahm rule is pure labor-market acceleration. Divergence reveals which part of the economy is signaling stress. CRPI rising while Sahm stays negative means non-labor indicators (credit, yield curve, housing) are weakening first.
Cross-Asset Analysis
Convex Recession Probability captures convex Recession Probability Index, composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale, whereas Sahm Rule Recession Indicator reflects sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rise from 12-month low. Crossing 0.5% has signaled every recession since 1970, and the difference between how they move is what the peer pair relationship is really about. Sector, style, and geographic dominance cycles each produce multi-year relative performance episodes between Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Factor tilts expressed through the Convex Recession Probability-Sahm Rule Recession Indicator selection allow managers to adjust style exposure without changing their overall asset allocation. Corporate action events, including buybacks or spin-offs affecting constituents of Convex Recession Probability or Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, can distort the spread relative to its intended factor tilt. Late-cycle environments force Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator to express their respective defensive and cyclical tilts more sharply, making the spread a useful regime tell.
Mid-cycle stretches see the Convex Recession Probability-Sahm Rule Recession Indicator spread compress as macro volatility stays low and factor returns normalize. A peer comparison like Convex Recession Probability against Sahm Rule Recession Indicator strips out the common-factor beta and leaves behind the differences in sector mix, capitalization, style, or geography. Structural changes inside Convex Recession Probability or Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, such as index reconstitution or methodology shifts, can break historical spread relationships in discrete jumps.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?+
Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Convex Recession Probability typically lead Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?+
Convex Recession Probability tends to lead Sahm Rule Recession Indicator during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in Convex Recession Probability precede corresponding moves in Sahm Rule Recession Indicator by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Convex Recession Probability-Sahm Rule Recession Indicator relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?+
Divergence between Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Convex Recession Probability or Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Is Convex Recession Probability a hedge for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator?+
Peers like Convex Recession Probability and Sahm Rule Recession Indicator do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Convex Recession Probability-Sahm Rule Recession Indicator pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.