Rates Analysis

Rates Analysis & Research

Interest rate analysis spanning the entire curve: Fed funds, Treasury yields, real rates, term premia, and swap spreads. Updated with every FOMC decision and data release.

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BreakingAug 17, 2026

Front-end rally takes the two-year to 4.15% as Brent runs to $90.90

The curve steepening that could not be decomposed in late July now has a source in the short end, and it arrived with crude higher, not lower.

treasuriesyield curve

Rates Analysis & Research

Front-end rally takes the two-year to 4.15% as Brent runs to $90.90

Volatility undid July's risk-off in two sessions. The 10-year sold off to 4.68%

Crude is up 19.4% and the bond market has priced two basis points of it

Oil jumped 4.8% by midday. Credit spreads have not moved in a month

Crude jumped 3.7% overnight while gold fell. Only barrels are pricing risk

GDPNow says growth collapsed to 1.3%. Claims and credit say otherwise

Meta's 6% day collides with the real-yield warning gold already took

Real Yields, Not Inflation Fears, Are Driving the Treasury Selloff Into CPI Week

Fiscal Dominance Is a Slow Burn, and the Fuse Is Lit

Every Major Central Bank Just Turned Hawkish at Once

Warsh at the Fed: Hawkish Pivot Risk Collides With Stagflation Trap

The Bond Market Is Screaming Recession While Inflation Refuses to Quit

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