Rates Analysis

Rates Analysis & Research

Interest rate analysis spanning the entire curve: Fed funds, Treasury yields, real rates, term premia, and swap spreads. Updated with every FOMC decision and data release.

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BreakingJul 13, 2026

Oil jumped 4.8% by midday. Credit spreads have not moved in a month

WTI at $74.86 and Brent at $79.65 were up nearly 5% with the New York session still open, while high yield spreads sit at 2.70, the tightest reading in the feed. June CPI lands on Tuesday.

oilcredit spreads

Rates Analysis & Research

Oil jumped 4.8% by midday. Credit spreads have not moved in a month

Crude jumped 3.7% overnight while gold fell. Only barrels are pricing risk

GDPNow says growth collapsed to 1.3%. Claims and credit say otherwise

Meta's 6% day collides with the real-yield warning gold already took

Real Yields, Not Inflation Fears, Are Driving the Treasury Selloff Into CPI Week

Fiscal Dominance Is a Slow Burn, and the Fuse Is Lit

Every Major Central Bank Just Turned Hawkish at Once

Warsh at the Fed: Hawkish Pivot Risk Collides With Stagflation Trap

The Bond Market Is Screaming Recession While Inflation Refuses to Quit

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