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Warsh at the Fed: Hawkish Pivot Risk Collides With Stagflation Trap
A May leadership transition would tighten policy into a weakening economy, the worst possible timing.
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Interest rate analysis spanning the entire curve: Fed funds, Treasury yields, real rates, term premia, and swap spreads. Updated with every FOMC decision and data release.
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A May leadership transition would tighten policy into a weakening economy, the worst possible timing.
A 52-basis-point collapse in the 2-year yield sets up the most dangerous macro tension of 2026.
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