Credit market analysis: investment-grade and high-yield spreads, default rates, leveraged lending, and financial stress indicators that signal risk appetite shifts.
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High-yield spreads sit near 2.80%, close to cycle tights, with no visible stress. Underneath sit $1.7T of private credit, elevated leverage, and a carry-unwind transmission line.
Futures slide into thin liquidity while HY spreads sit near cycle tights, that gap is the story.
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HY OAS at 3.28% tells a strikingly different story from oil at $111 and gold at $4,697