The BoJ Trigger Has Fired. The Carry Unwind Has Not
The Bank of Japan is at 1%, its highest since 1995, yet the yen sits near 162. The scenario is no longer about whether Japan normalises, but when the stretched carry snaps.
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Foreign exchange analysis covering dollar dynamics, euro, yen, yuan, and EM currencies. Rate differentials, intervention risk, and macro drivers of FX moves.
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The Bank of Japan is at 1%, its highest since 1995, yet the yen sits near 162. The scenario is no longer about whether Japan normalises, but when the stretched carry snaps.
A BOJ policy rate around 1.0% is still low by Western standards. In yen-funded portfolios, it changes the sign on the trade.
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USD/JPY at 160.16 is not a currency position, it is a $4-6 trillion structural risk hiding in plain sight.