How to Trade the Macro Analysis

The macro desk is the foundation of everything on Convex. It analyses central bank data, inflation, credit conditions, and global flows to determine the overall market regime. Every other strategy desk reads from these conclusions.

What the macro page shows you

The AI reads over 100 economic data series from the Federal Reserve, EIA, CFTC, and other sources every day. It produces a structured view of the world that includes:

Macro Regime — Is the economy in a Goldilocks phase (growth + low inflation), Reflation (growth + rising inflation), Stagflation (low growth + high inflation), or Deflation? This single classification drives everything.
Scenarios — 2-4 probability-weighted futures. For example: "Base Case 55%: soft landing" vs "Bear Case 25%: recession by Q3." The system weighs every trade against all scenarios, not just the base case.
Asset Views — Direction (bullish/bearish) and conviction (strong/moderate/low) for BTC, equities, oil, gold, the dollar, and bonds.
Key Risks — What could go wrong. If you only read one section, read this one.

How to actually use this

1. Start with the regime. The regime tells you what kind of market you're in. In Goldilocks, most risk assets work. In Stagflation, almost nothing works except commodities and cash. Don't fight the regime.

2. Check the conviction levels. STRONG conviction means the system has multiple confirming signals and the thesis has survived scrutiny. MODERATE means reasonable but not slam-dunk. LOW means thin evidence — treat these as watch-list items, not trades.

3. Read the scenarios, not just the base case. If the base case is "soft landing at 55%" but the bear case is "recession at 30%", that 30% matters. Good traders size positions to survive their worst-case scenario, not just profit from the best case.

4. Watch for regime transitions. The trajectory field ("IMPROVING", "STABLE", "DETERIORATING") tells you if conditions are changing. A deteriorating Goldilocks is much more dangerous than a stable one. Transitions are where the big money is made — and lost.

The best macro trades happen when the regime is changing but the market hasn't noticed yet. If the AI flags a transition from Goldilocks to Stagflation while equities are at all-time highs, that's a high-conviction setup.

Reading asset views correctly

Each asset view has a direction, conviction, and thesis. The thesis is the "why" — a causal chain like "IF the Fed holds rates longer THEN the dollar stays strong BECAUSE rate differentials widen."

The invalidation price/condition tells you when the thesis breaks. This is your stop-loss logic. If the AI says "bearish gold above $2,100 — invalidated if gold breaks $2,250 on a weekly close," then $2,250 is where you admit the trade isn't working.

When a view changes direction (e.g. bullish to bearish), check the reasoning. The system requires naming a specific broken thesis pillar before reversing. If the reasoning is thin, the reversal may be premature.

Key terms you'll see

Yield Curve — The spread between short- and long-term interest rates. An inverted curve (short rates above long rates) has preceded every US recession.
Breakeven Inflation — What the bond market expects inflation to be. Rising breakevens mean the market expects more inflation.
HY Spreads — The extra yield junk bonds pay over Treasuries. Widening spreads signal growing credit stress.
CFTC Positioning — Shows how speculators are positioned in futures markets. Extreme positioning is a contrarian signal.
Quantitative Tightening — The Fed shrinking its balance sheet, which drains liquidity from markets.
Real Yields — Interest rates adjusted for inflation. Rising real yields are a headwind for gold and growth stocks.

What NOT to do

Don't trade LOW conviction views. They're informational — the system itself isn't confident enough to put real money behind them.

Don't ignore the key risks section. If the top risk is "inflation reaccelerates" and you're long equities, you need a plan for that scenario.

Don't fight cross-asset consistency. If the macro is bearish equities, bearish credit, and bullish the dollar — that's a coherent risk-off picture. Going long equities against all three signals is a low-probability bet.

Don't over-react to single data points. The system flags what counts as signal vs noise based on the current volatility regime. If a data release doesn't move the macro view, it's probably noise.

When to check this page

The macro analysis runs twice daily on weekdays and once on Sundays. Check it in the morning before your trading day starts. If a breaking news event triggers a re-analysis (you'll see it on the Daily page), check again — the regime may have shifted.

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