The Bank of Japan is at 1%, its highest since 1995, yet the yen sits near 162. The scenario is no longer about whether Japan normalises, but when the stretched carry snaps.
Scenario probabilities are computed using a Bayesian log-odds model with calibrated base rates, z-score evidence weighting on first-differences, cross-metric correlation adjustment, and simultaneous coherence enforcement. Positioning reflects directional expected value under binary resolution assumptions. Full methodology and known limitations →
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This analysis was produced by the Convex Research Desk from live economic data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. See our editorial standards and terms of service.
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