CVRP, Convex Recession Probability in 2019
CVRP, Convex Recession Probability opened 2019 at 47.00 and closed at 25.00, a -46.81% move for the year. The high of 48.00 was reached on January 5, and the low of 19.00 on April 13.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 47.00 | 41.00 | 48.00 | 41.00 | -12.77% |
| Feb | 41.00 | 32.00 | 41.00 | 32.00 | -21.95% |
| Mar | 30.00 | 31.00 | 34.00 | 30.00 | +3.33% |
| Apr | 25.00 | 22.00 | 25.00 | 19.00 | -12.00% |
| May | 22.00 | 38.00 | 38.00 | 22.00 | +72.73% |
| Jun | 40.00 | 39.00 | 41.00 | 33.00 | -2.50% |
| Jul | 39.00 | 27.00 | 40.00 | 27.00 | -30.77% |
| Aug | 31.00 | 34.00 | 37.00 | 31.00 | +9.68% |
| Sep | 31.00 | 25.00 | 33.00 | 21.00 | -19.35% |
| Oct | 26.00 | 29.00 | 31.00 | 24.00 | +11.54% |
| Nov | 28.00 | 30.00 | 31.00 | 25.00 | +7.14% |
| Dec | 30.00 | 25.00 | 32.00 | 24.00 | -16.67% |
Events During 2019
Hong Kong's 2019 protests over an extradition bill and Beijing's 2020 National Security Law reshaped the territory's role as Asia's financial hub. Capital outflows, reduced multinational presence, and regulatory divergence from the West had durable effects on regional finance.
Overnight repo rates spiked from 2% to 10% on September 17, 2019, forcing the Fed to intervene with its first open market operations since 2008. The episode revealed structural strains in US money markets that persisted into 2020.
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