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10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)

Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation rate; long-horizon anchor used in DSGE and nowcasting work.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) is currently 2.48%, last updated .

2.48%
1W +2.37%1M +2.37%3M +12.82%
Updated 44m ago
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Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland), blended across current macro regimes.
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Inflation erodes purchasing power and forces central banks to tighten, squeezing equity multiples and increasing credit stress. Breakeven rates reveal what the bond market expects for future inflation, while CPI and PCE measure what consumers actually experience. Divergences between market expectations and realized prints create some of the highest-impact trading events of the year.

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Recent Data

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DateValueChange
May 1, 20262.48%+2.37%
Apr 1, 20262.42%+10.21%
Mar 1, 20262.19%-7.41%
Feb 1, 20262.37%+1.66%
Jan 1, 20262.33%-0.65%
Dec 1, 20252.35%+1.73%
Nov 1, 20252.31%+0.47%
Oct 1, 20252.30%-0.11%
Sep 1, 20252.30%+0.90%
Aug 1, 20252.28%-2.58%
Jul 1, 20252.34%-0.35%
Jun 1, 20252.35%+1.64%
May 1, 20252.31%-1.80%
Apr 1, 20252.35%+2.42%
Mar 1, 20252.30%-6.97%
Feb 1, 20252.47%+0.96%
Jan 1, 20252.44%+5.15%
Dec 1, 20242.32%-0.33%
Nov 1, 20242.33%+10.20%
Oct 1, 20242.12%-0.39%
Sep 1, 20242.12%-1.83%
Aug 1, 20242.16%-8.62%
Jul 1, 20242.37%+0.05%
Jun 1, 20242.37%—

Related in Inflation

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US consumer price index, year-on-year change (OECD MEI). Feed stopped updating in April 2025; CPIAUCNS_YOY is the live replacement.
US CPI YoY
US headline CPI year-over-year, derived in-house from CPIAUCNS (NSA, BLS headline methodology). Replaced the stale OECD MEI CPALTT01USM659N feed.
Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)
CPI excluding food and energy, less volatile measure of underlying inflation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland)?
Cleveland Fed 10-year expected inflation rate; long-horizon anchor used in DSGE and nowcasting work.
▶How does 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) relate to inflation?
10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) is part of the Inflation category. Inflation erodes purchasing power and forces central banks to tighten, squeezing equity multiples and increasing credit stress. Breakeven rates reveal what the bond market expects for future inflation, while CPI and PCE measure what consumers actually experience. Divergences between market expectations and realized prints create some of the highest-impact trading events of the year.
▶How often is 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) updated?
10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) is updated once per month when the releasing agency publishes new data. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) data?
Convex sources 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) chart page?
The 10Y Expected Inflation (Cleveland) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated monthly. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.