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Convex Narrative Velocity Index

Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale.

The Convex Narrative Velocity Index is currently 72.56, last updated . Accelerating (72.56/100), strong narrative shift underway, align or reduce exposure

72.56
1W -17.69%1M -6.68%3M -6.68%
Updated 41m ago
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Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction.

Updated just now

Current Reading

Accelerating (72.56/100), strong narrative shift underway, align or reduce exposure

AI Analysis

Apr 19, 2026

The highest-conviction view in the book remains GOLD BULLISH: CFTC positioning at 2nd pctile (specs massively short while price is at ATH = CB demand is price-insensitive and overwhelming), declining real yields (10Y TIPS -4% 1M), stagflation regime (gold's best environment), and expanding net liquidity.

Recent Data

Download CSV
DateValueChange
Apr 19, 202672.56-0.03%
Apr 18, 202672.58-14.85%
Apr 17, 202685.24+1.02%
Apr 16, 202684.38+15.29%
Apr 15, 202673.19+0.91%
Apr 14, 202672.53-0.43%
Apr 13, 202672.84-17.37%
Apr 12, 202688.15+1.07%
Apr 11, 202687.22+20.50%
Apr 10, 202672.38-0.69%
Apr 9, 202672.88-3.16%
Apr 8, 202675.26-0.88%
Apr 7, 202675.93-1.43%
Apr 6, 202677.03-0.93%
Apr 5, 202677.75—

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Scenario-weighted forecast using trend extrapolation approach.
Category
All Positioning & Sentiment Data
AAII and NAAIM sentiment surveys, CFTC futures positioning, and FINRA margin debt. The behavior of the marginal trader....

Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Convex Narrative Velocity Index?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale.
▶How does Convex Narrative Velocity Index relate to sentiment & positioning?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index is part of the Sentiment & Positioning category. Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction.
▶How often is Convex Narrative Velocity Index updated?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Convex Narrative Velocity Index data?
Convex sources Convex Narrative Velocity Index data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Convex Narrative Velocity Index chart page?
The Convex Narrative Velocity Index page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.