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Convex Narrative Velocity Index

Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale.

ByConvex Research Desk·Edited byBen Bleierⓘ·

The Convex Narrative Velocity Index is currently 74.09, last updated . Accelerating (74.09/100), strong narrative shift underway, align or reduce exposure

74.09
1W -13.39%1M +0.65%3M +0.65%
Updated 10h ago
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Statistical forecast 2026
Model-based central estimate, 68% and 95% confidence bands for Convex Narrative Velocity Index, blended across current macro regimes.
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Download dataCSV (full history)·JSON (latest)·View on FRED ↗
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Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction.

Updated 10h ago

Current Reading

Accelerating (74.09/100), strong narrative shift underway, align or reduce exposure

AI Analysis

Jun 3, 2026

The highest-conviction trade in the book is LONG GOLD: CFTC at 2nd pctile (maximum crowded short, 154,260 net short) creates a mechanical squeeze setup, stagflation is gold's best regime (40% base + 10% inflation re-acceleration = 50% of probability mass), and gold's resilience at $4,507 despite 2.07% real yields signals structural demand decoupled from traditional drivers. The second-highest conviction view is BEARISH BONDS: inflation pipeline building, term premium rising (+10bp 1M to 83bp), Fed on hold, fiscal supply concerns — 10Y should break above 4.60% and 30Y above 5.10% over 4-8 weeks. The semiconductor signal (SMH +8.1% vs SPY 20D) and broad market participation (RSP +3.5% vs SPY +2.3%) are the most bullish signals in the dataset and argue against the bearish fundamental view — this tension is unresolved and keeps equity conviction LOW.

Recent Data

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DateValueChange
Jun 3, 202674.09+0.05%
Jun 2, 202674.05-0.03%
Jun 1, 202674.07-14.55%
May 31, 202686.68-0.21%
May 30, 202686.86+2.45%
May 29, 202684.78-0.45%
May 28, 202685.16-0.44%
May 27, 202685.54-3.14%
May 26, 202688.31-0.19%
May 25, 202688.48+0.72%
May 24, 202687.85-0.27%
May 23, 202688.09-0.90%
May 22, 202688.89+0.46%
May 21, 202688.48+0.40%
May 20, 202688.13+0.51%
May 19, 202687.68+0.10%
May 18, 202687.59+1.00%
May 17, 202686.72+0.12%
May 16, 202686.62+0.19%
May 15, 202686.46+17.11%
May 14, 202673.83+0.52%
May 13, 202673.45-0.15%
May 12, 202673.56-0.07%
May 11, 202673.61—

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Explore Further

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Convex Narrative Velocity Index Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using trend extrapolation approach.
Category
All Positioning & Sentiment Data
AAII and NAAIM sentiment surveys, CFTC futures positioning, and FINRA margin debt. The behavior of the marginal trader....

Frequently Asked Questions

▶What is Convex Narrative Velocity Index?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index, measures narrative acceleration across 46 RSS news sources via term frequency velocity, sentiment divergence, and source primacy. 0-100 scale.
▶How does Convex Narrative Velocity Index relate to sentiment & positioning?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index is part of the Sentiment & Positioning category. Positioning data reveals what the market is actually doing, as opposed to what it says it is doing. FINRA margin debt peaked ahead of every major bear market cycle of the last 40 years, while extreme readings in the AAII bull-bear spread are classic contrarian signals. CFTC commitments of traders separates speculative from commercial flow, identifying when large specs are overextended in either direction.
▶How often is Convex Narrative Velocity Index updated?
Convex Narrative Velocity Index is updated once per day after market close. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Convex Narrative Velocity Index data?
Convex sources Convex Narrative Velocity Index data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) API, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Convex Narrative Velocity Index chart page?
The Convex Narrative Velocity Index page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated daily. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.