Based on current macro regime conditions and leading index for us's historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects 1.85 by 2020-12-31 ( +7.6% from 1.72 today). The 68% confidence range is -3.61 to 7.31; the wider 95% range is -8.86 to 12.56. Methodology below the headline.
Leading Index for US Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 223 observations of Leading Index for US history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Performance by Window[02]
| WINDOW | N | ANN RET | ANN VOL | RET/VOL | HIT % | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 13 | 56.41% | 36.54% | 1.54 | 66.7% | 56.36% |
| 3Y | 37 | 2.87% | 38.49% | 0.07 | 52.8% | 8.86% |
| 5Y | 61 | 0.23% | 38.13% | 0.01 | 50.0% | 1.18% |
Forecast Approach
regime implied: The current macro regime classification (Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, or Deflation) dictates the expected direction and magnitude of movement, calibrated against historical regime performance.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Economic growth
- •Yield curve
- •Labor market
- •Credit conditions
- •Leading indicators
Historical Volatility
Low: composite indicators move slowly
Scenarios That Affect This Forecast
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Leading Index for US higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Leading Index for US depend on the current macro regime. Recession indicators distill complex economic dynamics into actionable signals. The Sahm Rule, triggered when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, has a perfect track record since 1970. Combined with yield-curve inversions and declining leading indicators, these metrics help traders identify turning points before they become consensus. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Recession Indicators category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Leading Index for US lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Leading Index for US higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Leading Index for US heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
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Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.