Dollar ETF vs Gold ETF
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
UUP tracks a basket of dollar futures while GLD tracks gold. Their inverse relationship is one of the most consistent in macro markets, but it occasionally breaks down during extreme risk events when both benefit from safe-haven flows. This comparison is useful for timing the gold-dollar rotation trade.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs US Dollar Bull (UUP) (invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) against Gold ETF (GLD) (SPDR Gold Shares, largest gold ETF) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the fx commodity pair relationship. Central bank divergence, particularly between the Fed and ECB or BOJ, can push US Dollar Bull (UUP) in directions that conflict with fundamentals driving Gold ETF (GLD). Dollar strength pressures Gold ETF (GLD) because non-dollar buyers face higher local-currency costs, and dollar weakness produces the mirror image in US Dollar Bull (UUP).
Monetary regime transitions, particularly dollar-system reforms or reserve-diversification moves, reset the level around which the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) spread oscillates. Specific supply disruptions including embargoes, mine closures, and crop failures produce commodity rallies uncorrelated with US Dollar Bull (UUP) moves, briefly breaking the dollar-commodity link. Macro hedge funds trade the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) pair through currency forwards, commodity futures, and cross-asset spread trades designed to isolate one driver at a time.
Every durable commodity cycle leaves a signature in the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) pair, making the spread a useful diagnostic for where the current cycle sits. Dollar bull markets compress commodity returns and pull the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) spread tighter; some of these compressions have lasted a decade or longer.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD)?+
US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD) are connected through dollar strength, real rates, and global demand. When the dollar shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does US Dollar Bull (UUP) typically lead Gold ETF (GLD)?+
US Dollar Bull (UUP) tends to lead Gold ETF (GLD) during dollar-driven regime shifts, where the currency move precedes the commodity response. In those periods, moves in US Dollar Bull (UUP) precede corresponding moves in Gold ETF (GLD) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD) varies by regime. Dollar and commodity prices have a strong long-run inverse correlation, with shorter-term dynamics depending on specific supply-demand conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD)?+
Divergence between US Dollar Bull (UUP) and Gold ETF (GLD) typically arises from specific supply shocks, central bank divergence, or reserve diversification flows. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in US Dollar Bull (UUP) or Gold ETF (GLD).
Is US Dollar Bull (UUP) a hedge for Gold ETF (GLD)?+
Commodities hedge against dollar weakness and rising inflation, while currency positions hedge against very different risks, so the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) pair is best thought of as a spread trade rather than a pure hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the US Dollar Bull (UUP)-Gold ETF (GLD) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.