Gold Spot vs Gold ETF (GLD)
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
GLD is designed to track gold spot minus expenses, but tracking error, NAV premium/discount, and futures roll dynamics mean the relationship isn't perfect. This comparison helps investors understand the cost of holding gold through the most popular ETF versus the theoretical spot price.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs Gold (Spot) (gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge) against Gold ETF (GLD) (SPDR Gold Shares, largest gold ETF) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the peer pair relationship. Factor exposures embedded inside Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) drive their relative performance, with growth-value, large-small, and domestic-international all surfacing in the spread. Pairs trading between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) is common because the spread is more stationary than either individual price, suitable for mean-reversion strategies.
Factor tilts expressed through the Gold (Spot)-Gold ETF (GLD) selection allow managers to adjust style exposure without changing their overall asset allocation. Sector, style, and geographic dominance cycles each produce multi-year relative performance episodes between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD). Interest rate cycles drive Gold (Spot) versus Gold ETF (GLD) relative performance through discount-rate sensitivity, with longer-duration exposures suffering more when rates rise.
Pairs like Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) trade tighter than either leg does individually, because the common component is high and the remaining idiosyncratic share is what the pair expresses. Corporate action events, including buybacks or spin-offs affecting constituents of Gold (Spot) or Gold ETF (GLD), can distort the spread relative to its intended factor tilt.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD)?+
Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Gold (Spot) typically lead Gold ETF (GLD)?+
Gold (Spot) tends to lead Gold ETF (GLD) during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in Gold (Spot) precede corresponding moves in Gold ETF (GLD) by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Gold (Spot)-Gold ETF (GLD) relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD)?+
Divergence between Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Gold (Spot) or Gold ETF (GLD).
Is Gold (Spot) a hedge for Gold ETF (GLD)?+
Peers like Gold (Spot) and Gold ETF (GLD) do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Gold (Spot)-Gold ETF (GLD) pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.