1Y vs 30Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The 1s30s curve captures the full span from short Fed policy to long-end term premium. Persistent inversion (1Y above 30Y) requires extreme Fed tightness or extreme long-run growth pessimism. Steep 1s30s spreads accompany reflation trades and early-cycle expansions.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs 1Y Treasury Yield (yield on 1-year US Treasury constant maturity securities) against 30Y Treasury Yield (yield on 30-year US Treasury, long bond benchmark) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the yield curve pair relationship. Duration traders implement views on the 1Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield basis through curve flatteners and steepeners, sized against the historical volatility of the spread. The duration mix differs between 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield, so identical basis-point moves generate different P&L, convexity exposure, and roll-down characteristics.
The 1Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield relationship can decouple during repo stress, Treasury auction pressure, and foreign reserve outflows, each of which distorts one leg without changing the underlying macro story. Convexity hedging by mortgage investors and pension liability matching nudge 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield around in ways that fundamentals alone cannot explain. Sector allocators watch the 1Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield spread to tilt between banks, which benefit from steepeners, and rate-sensitive growth names, which benefit from flatteners.
In a growth-led expansion, the 1Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield spread usually steepen; in disinflation and late-cycle tightening it normally flattens and can invert. Rate repricing flows through 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield at different speeds, with the shorter-dated leg adjusting first to FOMC communication and the longer-dated leg integrating slower-moving macro fundamentals.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield?+
1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield are connected through the Treasury yield curve and monetary policy expectations. When the policy rate path shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 1Y Treasury Yield typically lead 30Y Treasury Yield?+
1Y Treasury Yield tends to lead 30Y Treasury Yield during policy regime shifts, where the short end moves before the long end reprices. In those periods, moves in 1Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in 30Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Yields at different maturities are typically positively correlated in direction but differ in magnitude, which is what makes the spread informative. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 1Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between 1Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield typically arises from quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, foreign reserve flows, or term premium dislocations. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 1Y Treasury Yield or 30Y Treasury Yield.
Is 1Y Treasury Yield a hedge for 30Y Treasury Yield?+
Within the Treasury curve, 1Y Treasury Yield is not typically a hedge for 30Y Treasury Yield; they are both duration exposures with different convexity and roll characteristics. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 1Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.