30Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The spread between 30Y and 10Y yields reflects term premium at the long end of the curve. When the 30Y yield rises faster than the 10Y, the market is demanding more compensation for holding long-duration debt, typically signaling inflation fears or fiscal concerns. A flattening long end can signal flight to quality or deflationary expectations.
Cross-Asset Analysis
30Y Treasury Yield captures yield on 30-year US Treasury, long bond benchmark, whereas 10Y Treasury Yield reflects yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark, and the difference between how they move is what the yield curve pair relationship is really about. Dealer balance sheet limits and primary market calendar effects introduce liquidity-driven noise into the 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread that ignores macro fundamentals. Hiking cycles historically draw 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield closer together, with several of the recent decades' cycles inverting this spread well before the next recession became visible.
Regime beacons appear in the 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield basis: a sustained move in the spread typically precedes rotation between cyclical and defensive equity leadership. Sector allocators watch the 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread to tilt between banks, which benefit from steepeners, and rate-sensitive growth names, which benefit from flatteners. The 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield pair isolates a section of the Treasury curve, and the spread between them captures market-implied views that single-point yields cannot express.
The duration mix differs between 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield, so identical basis-point moves generate different P&L, convexity exposure, and roll-down characteristics. Foreign central bank demand for specific maturities can hold 10Y Treasury Yield lower than the domestic macro picture suggests, compressing the 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread for prolonged stretches.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through the Treasury yield curve and monetary policy expectations. When the policy rate path shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 30Y Treasury Yield typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
30Y Treasury Yield tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during policy regime shifts, where the short end moves before the long end reprices. In those periods, moves in 30Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Yields at different maturities are typically positively correlated in direction but differ in magnitude, which is what makes the spread informative. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between 30Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, foreign reserve flows, or term premium dislocations. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 30Y Treasury Yield or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is 30Y Treasury Yield a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Within the Treasury curve, 30Y Treasury Yield is not typically a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield; they are both duration exposures with different convexity and roll characteristics. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 30Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.