1Y vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The 1s10s spread is another classic recession-signal curve. The 1Y reflects near-term Fed policy expectations while the 10Y captures growth and term premium. When the 1Y exceeds the 10Y, markets expect immediate Fed tightness coupled with weak long-run growth, a classic pre-recession setup.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs 1Y Treasury Yield (yield on 1-year US Treasury constant maturity securities) against 10Y Treasury Yield (yield on 10-year US Treasury, the global risk-free benchmark) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the yield curve pair relationship. Late-cycle environments force 1Y Treasury Yield to track the policy peak while 10Y Treasury Yield starts discounting the eventual easing, producing the classic inversion that accompanies tighter financial conditions. The 1Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield pair isolates a slice of the Treasury curve, and the spread between them reflects market-implied expectations that single-point yields cannot surface.
Convexity hedging by mortgage investors and pension liability matching push 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield around in ways that fundamentals alone cannot explain. Hiking cycles historically bring 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield closer together, with several of the past four decades' cycles inverting this spread well before the next recession became visible. Foreign central bank demand for specific maturities can hold 10Y Treasury Yield lower than the domestic macro picture would indicate, compressing the 1Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread for extended stretches. 1Y Treasury Yield against 10Y Treasury Yield reads as a cleaner diagnostic than either yield alone, because the spread removes common-factor duration risk and leaves the relative repricing visible.
The 1Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield spread's sign and slope over multi-month windows informs credit positioning, because tighter financial conditions compress risk appetite with a lag.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield are connected through the Treasury yield curve and monetary policy expectations. When the policy rate path shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 1Y Treasury Yield typically lead 10Y Treasury Yield?+
1Y Treasury Yield tends to lead 10Y Treasury Yield during policy regime shifts, where the short end moves before the long end reprices. In those periods, moves in 1Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in 10Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Yields at different maturities are typically positively correlated in direction but differ in magnitude, which is what makes the spread informative. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 1Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between 1Y Treasury Yield and 10Y Treasury Yield typically arises from quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, foreign reserve flows, or term premium dislocations. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 1Y Treasury Yield or 10Y Treasury Yield.
Is 1Y Treasury Yield a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield?+
Within the Treasury curve, 1Y Treasury Yield is not typically a hedge for 10Y Treasury Yield; they are both duration exposures with different convexity and roll characteristics. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 1Y Treasury Yield-10Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.