2Y vs 30Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The 2s30s spread captures the broadest yield curve shape from short-end policy expectations to long-end term premium. Extended inversions (2Y above 30Y) are rare and typically signal severe recession or persistent inflation-fighting Fed stance. Steep 2s30s spreads align with reflation trades.
Cross-Asset Analysis
2Y Treasury Yield (yield on 2-year US Treasury, key Fed expectations proxy) and 30Y Treasury Yield (yield on 30-year US Treasury, long bond benchmark) are priced in separate markets, yet their co-movement tells macro desks something neither series reveals alone. Foreign central bank demand for specific maturities can hold 30Y Treasury Yield lower than the domestic macro picture would indicate, compressing the 2Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield spread for multi-quarter stretches. 2Y Treasury Yield anchors more heavily to the expected policy path, while 30Y Treasury Yield picks up more term premium and structural supply-demand pressure. Sector allocators watch the 2Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield spread to tilt between banks, which benefit from steepeners, and rate-sensitive growth names, which benefit from flatteners.
Macro funds combine the 2Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield spread with inflation breakevens and dollar positioning to construct multi-factor rate views that survive regime shifts better than outright duration bets. 2Y Treasury Yield versus 30Y Treasury Yield reads as a cleaner signal than either yield alone, because the spread removes common-factor duration risk and leaves the relative repricing visible. Yield repricing flows through 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield at different speeds, with the shorter-dated leg responding first to FOMC communication and the longer-dated leg integrating slower-moving macro fundamentals. The 2Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield spread's sign and slope over multi-month windows informs credit positioning, because tighter financial conditions compress risk appetite with a lag.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield?+
2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield are connected through the Treasury yield curve and monetary policy expectations. When the policy rate path shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 2Y Treasury Yield typically lead 30Y Treasury Yield?+
2Y Treasury Yield tends to lead 30Y Treasury Yield during policy regime shifts, where the short end moves before the long end reprices. In those periods, moves in 2Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in 30Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Yields at different maturities are typically positively correlated in direction but differ in magnitude, which is what makes the spread informative. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 2Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between 2Y Treasury Yield and 30Y Treasury Yield typically arises from quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, foreign reserve flows, or term premium dislocations. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 2Y Treasury Yield or 30Y Treasury Yield.
Is 2Y Treasury Yield a hedge for 30Y Treasury Yield?+
Within the Treasury curve, 2Y Treasury Yield is not typically a hedge for 30Y Treasury Yield; they are both duration exposures with different convexity and roll characteristics. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 2Y Treasury Yield-30Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.