30Y vs 5Y Treasury Yield
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The 5s30s curve is a pure term-premium and long-run inflation-expectation gauge. Steepening signals rising long-term inflation or fiscal concerns. Flattening, particularly when accompanied by falling 30Y yields, indicates confidence that central banks will contain inflation over the long run.
Cross-Asset Analysis
This page pairs 30Y Treasury Yield (yield on 30-year US Treasury, long bond benchmark) against 5Y Treasury Yield (yield on 5-year US Treasury constant maturity securities) to surface the specific macro signal that lives in the yield curve pair relationship. Regime beacons appear in the 30Y Treasury Yield-5Y Treasury Yield basis: a sustained move in the spread often precedes rotation between cyclical and defensive equity leadership. The duration mix differs between 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield, so identical basis-point moves generate different P&L, convexity exposure, and roll-down characteristics.
Macro funds combine the 30Y Treasury Yield-5Y Treasury Yield spread with inflation breakevens and dollar positioning to assemble multi-factor rate views that survive regime shifts better than outright duration bets. 30Y Treasury Yield compared with 5Y Treasury Yield reads as a cleaner signal than either yield alone, because the spread nets out common-factor duration risk and leaves the relative repricing visible. Hiking cycles historically draw 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield closer together, with several of the modern era's cycles inverting this spread well before the next recession became visible. Term premium reconstitution, especially after periods of suppressed volatility, shows up disproportionately in 5Y Treasury Yield and generates spread moves that rate-expectations models do not anticipate.
Yield repricing flows through 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield at different speeds, with the shorter-dated leg responding first to FOMC communication and the longer-dated leg integrating slower-moving macro fundamentals.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield?+
30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield are connected through the Treasury yield curve and monetary policy expectations. When the policy rate path shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does 30Y Treasury Yield typically lead 5Y Treasury Yield?+
30Y Treasury Yield tends to lead 5Y Treasury Yield during policy regime shifts, where the short end moves before the long end reprices. In those periods, moves in 30Y Treasury Yield precede corresponding moves in 5Y Treasury Yield by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield varies by regime. Yields at different maturities are typically positively correlated in direction but differ in magnitude, which is what makes the spread informative. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the 30Y Treasury Yield-5Y Treasury Yield relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield?+
Divergence between 30Y Treasury Yield and 5Y Treasury Yield typically arises from quantitative easing, quantitative tightening, foreign reserve flows, or term premium dislocations. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in 30Y Treasury Yield or 5Y Treasury Yield.
Is 30Y Treasury Yield a hedge for 5Y Treasury Yield?+
Within the Treasury curve, 30Y Treasury Yield is not typically a hedge for 5Y Treasury Yield; they are both duration exposures with different convexity and roll characteristics. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the 30Y Treasury Yield-5Y Treasury Yield pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.