UK Credit Spreads
7 mentions across Convex research, last mentioned
Recent Analysis Mentioning UK Credit Spreads
WTI at $74.86 and Brent at $79.65 were up nearly 5% with the New York session still open, while high yield spreads sit at 2.70, the tightest reading in the feed. June CPI lands on Tuesday.
RatesThe Atlanta Fed's nowcast printed the same 1.3% it reset to in April, and Thursday's update, not Tuesday's CPI, is the number that settles the growth question.
RatesHigh-yield spreads sit near 2.80%, close to cycle tights, with no visible stress. Underneath sit $1.7T of private credit, elevated leverage, and a carry-unwind transmission line.
CreditFutures slide into thin liquidity while HY spreads sit near cycle tights, that gap is the story.
CreditHY OAS at 3.28% tells a strikingly different story from oil at $111 and gold at $4,697
CreditA labour market in stasis, widening credit spreads, and gold at $4,700 paint a stagflation portrait the Fed cannot easily escape.
MacroWith inflation sticky, credit spreads widening and gold at $4,586, the Fed's room to manoeuvre is narrowing fast.
MacroScenarios Involving UK Credit Spreads
What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality explained with live data.
What happens when high yield credit spreads compress to historically tight levels? The risks of complacency in corporate credit, what it means for risk appetite, and how to position.
What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicators, yield curve, credit spreads, and labor data.
What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call ratios, and positioning.
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