Federal Reserve
54 mentions across Convex research, last mentioned
Recent Analysis Mentioning Federal Reserve
The VIX sits near 16 while Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index reads 15. That gap is June’s rates shock showing up in the one asset built to feel it first.
MacroSticky 3.6% inflation, rising claims, and a Sahm indicator near 0.3. The strict version needs inflation above 4% and unemployment above 5%, and the pipeline is pointed the wrong way.
MacroThe Fed dropped its easing bias, the Bank of Japan hit a 30-year high, and the ECB hiked again, all in the same week. The synchronized turn is the story markets keep underpricing.
RatesThe April 28-29, 2026 FOMC vote was not a normal hold. It was an 8-4 decision in which one voter wanted an immediate cut and three others supported the hold while rejecting the statement's easing bias. That is not a simple hawk-versus-dove split. It is a communication problem: the committee can agree on today's rate while disagreeing on what today's language commits it to tomorrow.
ratesA Treasury Secretary linking war risk to rate guidance is either bold coordination or a very public shove.
GeopoliticsA May leadership transition would tighten policy into a weakening economy, the worst possible timing.
RatesWTI at $111 has mechanically pre-loaded the next CPI print, the only question is whether markets are ready for the answer.
MacroStrong March payrolls buy the Fed time, but stagflation means more time is precisely what nobody can afford.
MacroStagflation deepening, real yields collapsing, and the Strait of Hormuz holding the world economy hostage.
MacroA labour market in stasis, widening credit spreads, and gold at $4,700 paint a stagflation portrait the Fed cannot easily escape.
MacroScenarios Involving Federal Reserve
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and market playbooks for Fed easing cycles.
What happens to markets when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates? Rate hike cycle impacts on stocks, bonds, housing, and crypto explained.
What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, and what comes next after the final hike.
What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals a deflationary spiral that changes the playbook for every asset.
Core PCE above 4% represents severe Fed target overshoot. What happens to rates, markets, and the Fed when the preferred inflation gauge runs double target?
Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) marks extreme monetary easing. What happens to markets, saving, and the economy when the Fed takes policy rates to zero?
SOFR spikes signal acute funding stress in Treasury repo markets. What happens when overnight funding rates rise above the Fed target?
What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents from restrictive policy.
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