5Y Breakeven Inflation in 2015
5Y Breakeven Inflation opened 2015 at 1.30% and closed at 1.31%, a +0.77% move for the year. The high of 1.72% was reached on April 30, and the low of 1.02% on September 28.
Monthly Breakdown
| Month | Open | Close | High | Low | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.30% | 1.29% | 1.31% | 1.05% | -0.77% |
| Feb | 1.32% | 1.49% | 1.49% | 1.32% | +12.88% |
| Mar | 1.54% | 1.51% | 1.61% | 1.27% | -1.95% |
| Apr | 1.58% | 1.72% | 1.72% | 1.55% | +8.86% |
| May | 1.72% | 1.57% | 1.72% | 1.53% | -8.72% |
| Jun | 1.55% | 1.61% | 1.69% | 1.55% | +3.87% |
| Jul | 1.60% | 1.36% | 1.62% | 1.35% | -15.00% |
| Aug | 1.31% | 1.26% | 1.31% | 1.11% | -3.82% |
| Sep | 1.18% | 1.07% | 1.24% | 1.02% | -9.32% |
| Oct | 1.13% | 1.20% | 1.26% | 1.13% | +6.19% |
| Nov | 1.23% | 1.30% | 1.33% | 1.20% | +5.69% |
| Dec | 1.29% | 1.31% | 1.33% | 1.17% | +1.55% |
Events During 2015
The PBoC devalued the yuan by 1.9% in a single day on August 11, 2015, the first meaningful devaluation since 1994. Global risk assets convulsed.
Brent crude fell from $115 in June 2014 to $27 in January 2016, a 77% collapse. Shale oversupply and OPEC's refusal to cut production broke the commodity supercycle that had dominated markets since 2003.
The Swiss National Bank abandoned its 1.20 EUR/CHF floor on January 15, 2015. The franc immediately surged 30%, blowing up retail FX brokers and exposing the fragility of exchange rate commitments.
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