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Gold (Spot)
Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge.
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Forecast 2026
Gold (Spot) Outlook
Scenario-weighted forecast using scenario weighted approach.
Comparison
Gold vs Bitcoin
Gold and Bitcoin compete as stores of value and inflation hedges, but behave very differently in risk-off environments. ...
Comparison
Dollar Index vs Gold
Gold and the US dollar share one of the most important inverse correlations in macro. A strong dollar typically pressure...
Comparison
Gold Spot vs Gold ETF (GLD)
GLD is designed to track gold spot minus expenses, but tracking error, NAV premium/discount, and futures roll dynamics m...
Comparison
Gold vs 10Y Real Yield
Gold has a strong inverse relationship with real yields. When real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yiel...
Comparison
Copper vs Gold
The copper-to-gold ratio is one of the most reliable real-time indicators of global economic health. Copper demand is dr...
Comparison
CFTC Gold Positioning vs Gold Price
Gold speculative positioning is a key contrarian indicator. When net longs are at extremes, gold rallies are vulnerable ...
Comparison
Ethereum vs Gold
Ethereum and gold represent opposite ends of the monetary spectrum. Gold is stable, uncorrelated, and thousands of years...
Comparison
Gold vs WTI Oil
The gold-oil ratio is one of the oldest cycle indicators. When gold outperforms oil, the market is pricing disinflation,...
Comparison
Gold vs Brent Oil
Brent is the global oil benchmark, so gold/Brent captures the gold-oil ratio with a more international lens than gold/WT...
Comparison
Gold vs Freeport (FCX)
Gold and FCX represent two very different commodity exposures. Gold is a passive monetary asset while FCX is leveraged e...
Comparison
Gold vs TIPS Bond ETF
Gold and TIPS are the two main inflation hedges, but they behave differently. TIPS respond to realized inflation breakev...
Comparison
Gold vs S&P 500
Gold versus SPY is the purest risk-on versus risk-off ratio in macro. Rising gold/SPY signals flight to safety, falling ...
Comparison
Gold vs Broad Commodity Index
The broad commodity index captures energy, metals, and agriculture, while gold is uniquely monetary. When gold outperfor...
Comparison
Gold vs VIX
Gold and VIX are both safe-haven proxies but respond to different risks. VIX rises during equity volatility spikes. Gold...
Comparison
Gold vs 10Y Treasury Yield
Gold typically moves inversely with nominal 10Y yields, but the real yield (adjusting for inflation) matters more. When ...
Comparison
Gold vs M2 Money Supply
Gold historically outperforms during periods of rapid M2 expansion. The 2020-2021 gold rally aligned with record M2 grow...
Comparison
Gold vs Fed Balance Sheet
Gold has been sensitive to Fed balance sheet moves. QE expansions (2009-2011, 2020-2022) coincided with major gold ralli...
Comparison
EUR/USD vs Gold
Both euro strength and gold strength reflect dollar weakness. When EUR/USD rises faster than gold, euro-specific catalys...
Comparison
USD/JPY vs Gold
USD/JPY rising (yen weakening) often coincides with gold weakness because both are driven by US rate differentials. When...
Comparison
10Y Breakeven Inflation vs Gold
Gold is often cited as an inflation hedge but historically correlates better with real yields than breakeven inflation. ...
Comparison
WTI Oil vs Gold
The oil-gold ratio is a barometer of real growth vs monetary concerns. Rising ratio (oil rising faster than gold) signal...
Comparison
Gold vs Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
Gold and QQQ represent opposite portfolio themes: gold is real-asset hedge, QQQ is growth equity. When gold outperforms ...
Comparison
Gold vs Russell 2000 (IWM)
Gold and IWM often move in opposite directions because gold is defensive-safe-haven while IWM is high-beta risk. Gold ou...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Inverts?
What happens to stocks, bonds, and the economy when the yield curve inverts? A historically reliable recession signal ex...
Scenario
What Happens When the VIX Exceeds 30?
What happens when the VIX fear gauge spikes above 30? Historical analysis of extreme volatility events, market reactions...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates?
What happens to stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates? Historical patterns and m...
Scenario
What Happens When CPI Surprises Hot?
What happens to markets when CPI inflation data comes in hotter than expected? Bond selloffs, Fed hawkishness, and portf...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Triggers?
What happens when the Sahm Rule recession indicator triggers? Every historical instance, market impacts, and what it mea...
Scenario
What Happens When High-Yield Spreads Blow Out?
What happens when junk bond credit spreads widen past 500 bps? Credit crises, contagion risk, and the flight to quality ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Dollar Strengthens Sharply?
What happens when the US dollar surges? Impact on emerging markets, commodities, corporate earnings, and global financia...
Scenario
What Happens When Oil Prices Spike?
What happens when oil prices spike? Inflation fears, consumer squeeze, recession risk, and the complex impact on stocks,...
Scenario
What Happens When Gold Surges?
What happens when gold prices surge? The risk-off signal, inflation hedge demand, central bank buying, and portfolio imp...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Crashes?
What happens when Bitcoin crashes 30%+? Crypto contagion, risk-off cascades, and whether BTC drawdowns spill into tradit...
Scenario
What Happens When a Treasury Auction Fails?
What happens when Treasury auctions see weak demand? Fiscal dominance concerns, yield spikes, and the threat to the glob...
Scenario
What Happens When Inflation Expectations De-Anchor?
What happens when long-term inflation expectations break above 3%? Fed credibility crisis, policy dilemma, and the risk ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes?
What happens to markets when the Fed stops raising rates? Historical patterns from rate pauses, asset class playbooks, a...
Scenario
What Happens When the Dollar Crashes?
What happens to global markets when the US dollar drops sharply? Impact on commodities, emerging markets, US equities, a...
Scenario
What Happens When the S&P 500 Drops 20%?
What happens when the stock market enters a bear market? Historical patterns, recovery timelines, asset class reactions,...
Scenario
What Happens When Gold Hits $3,000?
What does gold at $3,000 mean for the global economy? Analysis of what drives gold to record highs and the implications ...
Scenario
What Happens When the VIX Drops Below 12?
What happens when market volatility hits extreme lows? The risks of complacency, historical parallels, and how to positi...
Scenario
What Happens When Real Rates Go Negative?
What happens when real interest rates turn negative? Financial repression, the war on savers, and how assets reprice whe...
Scenario
What Happens When Consumer Confidence Collapses?
What happens when consumer sentiment craters? Does it actually predict spending? Historical analysis of confidence crash...
Scenario
What Happens When the Yield Curve Steepens Sharply?
What happens when the yield curve steepens rapidly? Bull steepener vs bear steepener, recession timing, and the implicat...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Halves?
What happens to Bitcoin after a halving? Historical price cycles, supply shock mechanics, miner economics, and how halvi...
Scenario
What Happens When the M2 Money Supply Contracts?
What happens when the money supply shrinks? Monetarist deflation fears, historical rarity, and implications for asset pr...
Scenario
What Happens When China Devalues the Yuan?
What happens when China devalues its currency? Global deflation export, emerging market contagion, commodity impact, and...
Scenario
What Happens When Breakeven Inflation Crashes?
What happens when the bond market prices in deflation? When breakeven inflation crashes below the Fed target, it signals...
Scenario
What Happens When Speculative Positioning Hits Extremes?
What happens when futures market positioning hits extreme levels? Contrarian signals, crowded trade risks, and how CFTC ...
Scenario
What Happens When GDP Contracts?
What happens to markets, policy, and the economy when real GDP contracts? Historical playbook for recession quarters, wi...
Scenario
What Happens When the Sahm Rule Exceeds 1.0?
The Sahm Rule triggers recession alerts when unemployment rises 0.5 points. What happens when it exceeds 1.0, signaling ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Leading Economic Index Turns Negative?
The Leading Economic Index anticipates recessions by 6-12 months. What happens when its six-month change turns negative,...
Scenario
What Happens When Core PCE Exceeds 4%?
Core PCE above 4% represents severe Fed target overshoot. What happens to rates, markets, and the Fed when the preferred...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Cuts Rates to Zero?
Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) marks extreme monetary easing. What happens to markets, saving, and the economy when th...
Scenario
What Happens When the 10Y Treasury Yield Exceeds 5%?
10-year Treasury yields above 5% represent extreme tightening of financial conditions. What happens to equities, housing...
Scenario
What Happens When DXY Hits 120?
Extreme dollar strength creates global stress. What happens when the broad dollar index hits multi-decade highs, pressur...
Scenario
What Happens When the Euro Hits Parity with the Dollar?
EUR/USD parity signals extreme dollar strength and European economic stress. What happens to European equities, ECB poli...
Scenario
What Happens When the Gold-Silver Ratio Exceeds 90?
Gold-silver ratio above 90 signals industrial or financial stress. What happens when gold dramatically outpaces silver, ...
Scenario
What Happens When Bitcoin Crosses $100,000?
Bitcoin above $100,000 marks a major psychological milestone. What happens to crypto markets, institutional adoption, an...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Recession Probability Index Spikes?
What happens when the Convex Recession Probability Index signals elevated recession risk? Composite of leading indicator...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Net Liquidity Index Contracts?
What happens when aggregate USD net liquidity contracts? Impact on risk assets, Bitcoin, and equity multiples when Fed b...
Scenario
What Happens When the Convex Risk Appetite Index Collapses?
What happens when the Convex Risk Appetite Index collapses into extreme fear? Composite of VIX, credit spreads, put-call...
Scenario
What Happens When Nonfarm Payrolls Turn Negative?
What happens when Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) turn negative? Recession confirmation, Fed response, and historical market reac...
Scenario
What Happens When Job Openings Collapse?
What happens when JOLTS job openings collapse? Labor market weakness, Fed response, and implications for wage growth and...
Scenario
What Happens When Continuing Jobless Claims Surge?
What happens when continuing unemployment claims surge above 2.0M? Signal that unemployed workers are having trouble fin...
Scenario
What Happens When Real GDP Turns Negative?
What happens when real GDP contracts? Recession definition, Fed response, and historical market behavior during negative...
Scenario
What Happens When Wage Growth Accelerates Above 5%?
What happens when average hourly earnings accelerate above 5% year-over-year? Fed response, inflation implications, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When Shelter CPI Peaks?
What happens when shelter CPI peaks and begins decelerating? Disinflation implications, Fed response, and market reactio...
Scenario
What Happens When PPI Turns Negative?
What happens when Producer Price Index turns negative? Deflation risk, margin implications, and the leading signal for C...
Scenario
What Happens When Fed Funds Rate Exceeds 6%?
What happens when the Fed funds rate exceeds 6%? Financial stress, economic slowdown risk, and historical precedents fro...
Scenario
What Happens When 10-Year Real Yields Turn Positive?
What happens when 10-year real yields turn positive after a prolonged negative period? Impact on gold, tech stocks, and ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Fed Balance Sheet Expands?
What happens when the Fed restarts balance sheet expansion (QE)? Risk asset response, inflation implications, and histor...
Scenario
What Happens When Bank Reserves Collapse?
What happens when bank reserves fall sharply? Repo market stress, funding conditions, and potential Fed response....
Scenario
What Happens When the Treasury General Account Drains?
What happens when the Treasury General Account (TGA) drains? Liquidity injection effects, risk asset response, and debt ...
Scenario
What Happens When the Japanese Yen Weakens Past 160?
What happens when USDJPY exceeds 160? BoJ intervention risk, carry trade unwinds, and global market implications....
Scenario
What Happens When Regional Banks Come Under Stress?
What happens when regional bank stocks (KRE) drop sharply? Deposit flight risk, commercial real estate exposure, and Fed...
Scenario
What Happens When VSTOXX European Volatility Spikes?
What happens when VSTOXX European volatility exceeds 35? European stress signal, global spillover risk, and ECB policy i...
Frequently Asked Questions
▶What is Gold (Spot)?
Gold spot price, the ultimate safe haven and inflation hedge.
▶How often is Gold (Spot) updated?
Gold (Spot) is updated in real time throughout market hours. Each metric page on Convex shows the exact time of the last data update and provides historical data going back up to five years.
▶Where does Convex source Gold (Spot) data?
Convex sources Gold (Spot) data from live market data providers including CoinGecko for crypto and major exchanges for equities and commodities. Data is fetched automatically and displayed alongside interactive charts, AI analysis, and historical context.
▶What can I do on the Gold (Spot) chart page?
The Gold (Spot) page includes an interactive chart with selectable time ranges (1 month to 5 years), percentage changes over multiple timeframes, a table of recent readings, AI-generated analysis, and links to related metrics and comparisons.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, CFTC, and EIA. Updated real-time. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.