Bitcoin

BTC is Bitcoin spot price, the original cryptocurrency, traded 24/7 on global exchanges and held in approximately $1.5 trillion of market cap as of early 2026. Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, with new issuance halving roughly every four years; the most recent halving (April 19, 2024) cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.

Why it matters: BTC is the cleanest expression of the digital-scarcity narrative and is increasingly behaving like a macro asset rather than a pure tech-startup speculation. The January 2024 launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, others) brought $37 billion of inflows in the first year and pushed BTC into mainstream institutional portfolios. Post-ETF, the BTC-SPX rolling 50-day correlation has averaged approximately 0.5 (versus near 0 in 2022), indicating partial integration with traditional risk markets.

BTC traded $77,160.91 on the morning of April 29, 2026, off the all-time high of $126,198 set on October 6, 2025. Total spot Bitcoin ETF AUM reached approximately $102 billion through April 23, 2026, with IBIT alone at $63.1 billion and weekly inflows running $824 million in the week of April 20-24.

The drawdown from $126K to $77K (-39%) over six months is a substantial correction but well within historical Bitcoin cycle norms (prior cycles drew down 75-93% peak-to-trough). The bull case is that ETF flows are providing a structural bid that breaks the historical 4-year cycle and that BTC re-rates higher as a sovereign-debasement hedge. The bear case is that the post-halving cycle bottom has not yet arrived and that further drawdowns are typical of post-ATH bear markets in crypto.

Modern BTC range: $1 in 2010-2011, $19,783 in December 2017 (cycle 1 ATH), $3,250 in December 2018 (-73% calendar 2018), $68,789 in November 2021 (cycle 2 ATH), $15,480 in November 2022 (FTX collapse), $126,198 in October 2025 (cycle 3 ATH), $77,160 April 2026. The four-year halving cycle has historically anchored major peaks 12-18 months post-halving and major troughs 18-24 months post-peak. The post-2024 ETF era is the test of whether this cycle persists.

First, weekly spot ETF net flows. Sustained positive flows above $500M/week support price; sustained outflows above $500M/week signal institutional rotation away.

Second, the BTC-SPX rolling correlation. Above 0.6 indicates BTC is trading as risk asset, below 0.2 signals decoupling and digital-gold thesis activation.

Third, on-chain metrics: realized cap, exchange balances, and long-term holder supply. Long-term holder net selling at scale historically marks cycle tops.