US-Israel strikes Kharg Island, threatening Iran's 90% crude export capacity.

WHAT HAPPENED US-Israeli forces conducted strikes against Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude export capacity of roughly 700,000 barrels per day. The facility serves as Iran's primary oil export hub in the Persian Gulf. Damage assessment and Iranian response posture remain unclear.

CONF-INFRA-001 activates: strikes on critical energy infrastructure trigger immediate supply-risk repricing. The causal chain runs infrastructure attack → war risk insurance spike (potentially 1-2% of hull value for Persian Gulf tankers) → Iranian export disruption fears → Brent futures bid higher on supply shock expectations. Secondary channel: Iranian retaliation threats against Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil flows) amplify regional risk premium across energy complex.

Brent crude: bid 8-15% on immediate supply shock concerns, currently trading $95.47 versus FRED's $98.29. WTI: sympathy move 5-10% higher from $92.73. TLT: flight-to-quality bid as VIX spikes from current 21.51. Iranian crude buyers (India, China): seek alternative suppliers, supporting global price floor. Energy majors (XOM, CVX): margins expand on inventory revaluation. Short airlines (DAL, UAL) on fuel cost surge.

HIGH. Kharg Island's 90% share of Iranian exports makes supply impact mechanically calculable. Insurance markets reprice war risk immediately for Persian Gulf routes. Historical precedent: Abqaiq attacks triggered 15% single-session Brent spike despite rapid restoration.

Iranian Supreme Leader response within 48 hours. IRGC threats against Hormuz shipping lanes. US Fifth Fleet deployment announcements. Chinese diplomatic intervention attempts. Oil inventory draws accelerating beyond seasonal norms.