Equities

How to Trade the Equities Analysis

The equities desk analyses sector rotation, market breadth, earnings momentum, and cross-asset signals to produce ETF trade recommendations. It tells you which parts of the stock market to be in — and which to avoid.

Understanding the regime assessment

The first thing to look at is the equity regime: RISK_ON, RISK_OFF, or TRANSITIONING. This is different from the macro regime — it's specifically about how equities are behaving right now.

Below that, four sub-signals paint the full picture:

  • Breadth — Are most stocks participating in the rally (HEALTHY), or is it just a handful of mega-caps carrying the index (NARROWING/DETERIORATING)? Narrow rallies are fragile.
  • Sector Rotation — Are cyclical sectors leading (bullish for the economy) or defensive sectors (people are nervous)?
  • Concentration — How much of the move is driven by the top 5-10 stocks? EXTREME concentration means the index can look healthy while most stocks are sick.
  • Thesis Health — Is the previous equity thesis still valid (CONFIRMED/INTACT) or breaking down (CHALLENGED/INVALIDATED)?

How to read the trade recommendations

Each recommendation tells you: which ETF to trade, whether to go LONG (betting it goes up) or SHORT (betting it goes down), an entry zone, a target, and an invalidation level.

Entry zone — Don't chase. Wait for the price to reach the suggested entry range before opening the position. Buying at the top of the range gives you a worse risk/reward.

Target — Where the AI expects the trade to reach. Consider taking some profits here rather than holding for more.

Invalidation — If the price hits this level, the thesis is broken. Exit the trade. This is your stop-loss — not a suggestion.

Position size — The suggested percentage of your portfolio. A 3% position that goes wrong hurts. A 15% position that goes wrong destroys your month.

Look at the scenario payoff tags on each trade. If a trade shows "+12%" in the base case but "-25%" in the bear case, ask yourself if you can stomach that bear case before entering.

Scenarios: your most valuable tool

The scenario analysis section shows how equities would behave under different macro outcomes. Each scenario has a probability and equity-specific implications. This is how professional fund managers think — they don't bet on one future, they prepare for several.

The portfolio scenario exposure table shows your total portfolio impact under each scenario. If your portfolio shows "-15%" under the bear case, and that bear case has a 25% probability, you may be taking more risk than you realise.

The staleness indicator tells you how fresh the scenarios are. If they show "Stale" in red, the analysis is over 6 hours old and may not reflect the latest market moves. Wait for the next analysis run before making decisions.

Using the supporting signals

Sector heatmap — Green sectors are outperforming, red are underperforming. Trade with the rotation, not against it. If tech is deep red while utilities are green, the market is telling you something.

Divergences — When credit markets (HYG) diverge from equities (SPY), credit usually leads. A divergence flagged as "CONFIRMED" with a high hit rate is one of the most reliable signals the system produces.

Sentiment — Extreme Fear & Greed readings are contrarian signals. When everyone is greedy, be cautious. When everyone is fearful, start looking for opportunities. The sentiment gauge is most useful at extremes — in the middle, it tells you nothing.

Put/Call ratio — A high put/call ratio means traders are buying lots of protection (puts). Extreme readings are contrarian — heavy put buying often marks bottoms.

Earnings — Upcoming earnings dates help you avoid being blindsided. If you're long XLK and three mega-cap tech names report next week, size accordingly.

What NOT to do

Don't buy broad index ETFs when breadth is DETERIORATING. A rising SPY with falling RSP (equal-weight) means the top stocks are masking weakness. These divergences usually resolve downward.
Don't ignore the macro desk. If macro says RISK_OFF and equities are in TRANSITIONING, the equity longs will likely get hit. The macro regime is the tide — equities are the boats.
Don't add to positions when thesis health shows CHALLENGED or INVALIDATED. The system is telling you the original reason for the trade is breaking down.
Don't trade SPECULATIVE confidence recommendations with real size. They're exploratory ideas — small positions only, if at all.
Don't hold through invalidation levels. The single biggest mistake retail traders make is hoping a losing trade will come back. The invalidation exists for a reason.

A simple framework

1. Check the regime. If RISK_OFF, focus on shorts or stay out.

2. Check breadth and rotation. Trade the sectors that are leading.

3. Look at the featured recommendations — these are the system's highest-conviction ideas.

4. Check scenario payoffs. Make sure you can handle the worst case.

5. Set your entry, target, and stop (invalidation) before opening the trade.

6. Size conservatively. Professional funds rarely put more than 5% in a single equity trade.