Economic indicators are statistical measures that reveal the direction and health of an economy. Professional traders, portfolio managers, and central bankers use them to anticipate market regime shifts before they show up in asset prices. This guide explains what economic indicators are, how the major categories interact, and how to use the Convex Indicators Dashboard to monitor 668+ live metrics across 21 thematic categories.
An economic indicator is any data series that measures a dimension of economic activity. Some are released by government agencies (the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes nonfarm payrolls, the BEA publishes GDP), some by the Federal Reserve (the Treasury yield curve, federal funds rate), and some by private institutions (ISM PMI, Conference Board LEI).
Indicators are classified into three types based on their timing relative to the business cycle:
The distinction matters because trading on lagging indicators means you are reacting to what already happened. Professional macro analysts focus on leading indicators to position ahead of regime shifts, then use coincident and lagging indicators to confirm the thesis is playing out.
Of the 21 indicator categories tracked on the Convex dashboard, five form the backbone of macro analysis. Every other category is downstream of these.
The cost of money. The federal funds rate sets the floor for all borrowing costs. The 10-Year Treasury yield is the benchmark for mortgages, corporate bonds, and equity valuations. When the curve between them inverts (short rates above long rates), it signals that the bond market expects economic weakness ahead.
The rate at which purchasing power erodes. CPI measures what consumers pay. PCE (the Fed's preferred gauge) strips out volatile components. Breakeven inflation rates show what the bond market expects. Rising inflation forces the Fed to tighten, which raises rates, tightens financial conditions, and eventually slows growth.
Employment is the economy's vital sign. The unemployment rate is lagging, but initial jobless claims are leading. Nonfarm payrolls show the pace of job creation. The labor force participation rate reveals structural shifts. The Sahm Rule uses unemployment acceleration to identify recession starts in real time.
Credit is the transmission mechanism between monetary policy and the real economy. High-yield credit spreads widen when markets price in default risk. Investment-grade spreads track corporate borrowing stress. The NFCI captures the overall tightness of financial conditions. When credit conditions tighten sharply, recessions tend to follow.
The amount of money available in the financial system. The Fed's balance sheet, Treasury General Account (TGA), and reverse repo facility (RRP) determine net liquidity. When net liquidity rises, asset prices tend to follow. When the Fed drains liquidity through quantitative tightening, it creates a headwind for risk assets.
No single indicator tells the full story. The real signal comes from watching how indicators across categories confirm or contradict each other. If the yield curve inverts, credit spreads widen, and initial claims rise simultaneously, that is a coherent recession signal. If only one of those three is flashing, it might be noise.
This is exactly why the Convex Indicators Dashboard lets you chart up to 10 indicators on one plot. Overlay the 10Y-2Y spread with HY spreads and initial claims to see whether recession signals are converging or diverging.
The four Convex Intelligence Indices were built to automate this cross-category synthesis:
Each composite distills multiple raw indicators into a single number, saving you from tracking dozens of individual series while still capturing the underlying dynamics.
The Indicators Dashboard gives you access to 668+ live economic and market metrics in one interface. Here is how to get the most from it:
For deeper analysis of any individual metric, click the "page" link in search results or visit the full data directory to explore all categories.
Open the Indicators Dashboard to chart any combination of 668+ live metrics. Compare Treasury yields with credit spreads, overlay inflation data with Fed policy rates, or track all four Convex Intelligence Indices on one plot.
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