Based on current macro regime conditions and exxon mobil (xom)'s historical behaviour in similar regimes, the model projects $166 by 2026-12-31 ( +14.2% from $145 today). The 68% confidence range is $140 to $192; the wider 95% range is $114 to $217. Methodology below the headline.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Forecast 2026
Quantitative analysis from 1,351 observations of Exxon Mobil (XOM) history, joined to four universal macro regime classifications. Numbers are computed, not narrated.
Regime Scan[01/04]
Forecast Approach
scenario weighted: We aggregate probability-weighted outcomes across active tracked scenarios, each with historical base rates and current heat scores. The projection above is the sample-weighted central estimate across current macro regime anchors; the scenario list below adds qualitative context.
Key Drivers & Risks
- •Company earnings
- •Sector dynamics
- •Macro environment
- •Valuation
Historical Volatility
High: individual stock vol exceeds index vol
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors could push Exxon Mobil (XOM) higher?▾
The primary drivers that tend to lift Exxon Mobil (XOM) depend on the current macro regime. Exxon Mobil Corp., energy sector bellwether, tracks oil prices. Convex tracks these drivers live across the Equity Stock category and flags when multiple forces align in the same direction. See the "Key Drivers & Risks" section on this page for the current list, and check the regime dashboard for how the macro backdrop is currently tilted.
What factors could push Exxon Mobil (XOM) lower?▾
The same transmission channels that drive Exxon Mobil (XOM) higher operate in reverse when conditions flip. The risk drivers listed above map directly to scenarios that, if triggered, would pull this metric in the opposite direction. Convex aggregates these into a scenario-weighted probability distribution rather than a point forecast, so the magnitude depends on which scenarios activate.
Where does consensus see Exxon Mobil (XOM) heading?▾
Rather than publish a point target that goes stale the day after release, Convex assembles consensus from the macro regime classification, active scenario probabilities, and historical base rates. Point forecasts from banks and strategists are worth reading for context, but they typically cluster around the consensus and miss the tail events that actually move markets. The scenario-weighted approach here captures that tail risk explicitly.
What is the historical range for Exxon Mobil (XOM)?▾
Get forecast updates for Exxon Mobil (XOM) and related indicators.
Forecasts are model-based projections derived from current regime classification, scenario probabilities, and historical patterns. They are not investment advice. All investments involve risk.