Homebuilders (XHB) vs 30Y Mortgage Rate
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Homebuilders are directly sensitive to mortgage rates because rates drive affordability. XHB typically moves inversely to mortgage rates. When XHB rallies despite high rates, builder incentives (rate buydowns) and inventory shortages are overcoming rate drag. XHB weakness with falling rates signals housing-specific concerns beyond just rates.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Homebuilders (XHB) represents SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, housing cycle bellwether and 30Y Mortgage Rate represents 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the primary driver of housing affordability, which is why this comparison sits in the cross asset pair category on Convex. Policy-driven transitions inject abrupt repricing into the Homebuilders (XHB)-30Y Mortgage Rate relationship because the two markets respond to policy guidance on different timescales. Structural shifts reshaping Homebuilders (XHB) or 30Y Mortgage Rate, including retail demand or regulatory changes, can durably reshape the relationship.
Implied volatility regimes in Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate transmit through dealer flows that connect one market to the other via dealer balance sheets. Real yields, liquidity conditions, and the dollar underlie most cross-asset relationships, and when these change Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate both respond at asymmetric speeds. The Equity Sector and Housing segments share common drivers but vary in sensitivity, and the Homebuilders (XHB)-30Y Mortgage Rate spread surfaces those sensitivities.
Analysts pair Homebuilders (XHB) with 30Y Mortgage Rate to build cross-asset indicators that are more difficult to game than any single-market series. Regime classification based on Homebuilders (XHB)-30Y Mortgage Rate can be circular, because extreme spread values often resolve via mean reversion or regime change.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate?+
Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Homebuilders (XHB) typically lead 30Y Mortgage Rate?+
Homebuilders (XHB) tends to lead 30Y Mortgage Rate during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Homebuilders (XHB) precede corresponding moves in 30Y Mortgage Rate by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Homebuilders (XHB)-30Y Mortgage Rate relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate?+
Divergence between Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Homebuilders (XHB) or 30Y Mortgage Rate.
Is Homebuilders (XHB) a hedge for 30Y Mortgage Rate?+
Cross-asset hedges between Homebuilders (XHB) and 30Y Mortgage Rate work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Homebuilders (XHB)-30Y Mortgage Rate pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.