US Composite Leading Indicator vs Euro Area CLI
OECD Composite Leading Indicator (US) measures US cycle from amplitude-adjusted index normalized to 100 long-run trend. OECD CLI G4E covers euro-area G4 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, ~75% of Eurozone GDP).
Also known as: US OECD CLI (US CLI, OECD CLI US, US leading indicator, USA CLI) · Euro Area 4 OECD CLI (Euro area CLI, G4E CLI, Eurozone leading indicator)
Why This Comparison Matters
OECD Composite Leading Indicator (US) measures US cycle from amplitude-adjusted index normalized to 100 long-run trend. OECD CLI G4E covers euro-area G4 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, ~75% of Eurozone GDP). April 2026: US CLI approximately 99.5 (slight contraction territory below 100); Euro Area CLI approximately 99.0 (modest below-trend). Both below 100 suggesting below-trend growth. US CLI declining gradually from 100.5 peak (Q1 2024). Euro Area CLI rising from 96.5 trough (early 2023). Combined: transatlantic cycle convergence as US softens + Eurozone bottoms. Spread compressed to +0.5pp from +4.0pp peak in 2022.
The April 2026 Configuration
US OECD CLI: ~99.5 (April 2026, latest data with 45-day lag from March 2026). Below trend (100.0). Down from 100.5 peak Q1 2024.
Euro Area G4 OECD CLI: ~99.0 (April 2026). Below trend. Up from 96.5 trough early 2023. Recovering gradually.
US-Euro Area spread: +0.5pp (US above). Compressed from +4.0pp peak in 2022 (US strongly outperforming during energy crisis).
US CLI components: building permits (mortgage 6.5% headwind), initial claims 225K stable, ISM new orders mixed, consumer confidence pessimistic, stock prices record high.
Euro Area CLI components: industrial production, consumer confidence (recovering), ECB policy rate 2.00% (cutting cycle complete), Eurozone PMIs improving 50+, energy costs normalized.
Combined April 2026 reading: transatlantic cycle convergence. US softening from peak + Eurozone recovering from trough. Cross-asset implications: EUR/USD 1.168 (recovered from 1.05 lows 2024). Both below trend but converging.
Long-Term Range and Recent Trajectory
US CLI history: range 96-104 over past 30 years. 2008-09 GFC trough 95.5. 2020 COVID trough 96.0 + sharp V-shape recovery. 2021-2022 peak 102.5. 2024 mini-peak 100.5. Currently 99.5.
Euro Area CLI history: range 95-104 over past 30 years. 2008-09 GFC trough 94.5. 2012 sovereign crisis trough 96.5. 2020 COVID trough 95.0. 2022 trough 96.5 (energy crisis). Currently 99.0.
2022-2026 transatlantic divergence: US CLI 102 (Q1 2022) declining gradually to 99.5 (April 2026). Euro Area CLI 100 (Q1 2022) declining sharply to 96.5 (Q1 2023, energy crisis) recovering to 99.0 (April 2026). Spread peaked +4.0pp 2022 (Russia-Ukraine energy shock disproportionately hit Eurozone).
April 2026 convergence: spread +0.5pp. Lowest divergence since 2022. Reflects: (1) US labor market softening + Sahm Rule trigger, (2) Eurozone energy crisis resolution, (3) ECB cutting cycle complete (2.00% from 4.50% peak), (4) German recession-recovery cycle.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the April 2026 US CLI vs Euro Area CLI configuration?+
US OECD CLI ~99.5 (April 2026, declining from 100.5 Q1 2024 peak). Euro Area G4 OECD CLI ~99.0 (recovering from 96.5 trough Q1 2023). Spread +0.5pp (US above; compressed from +4.0pp peak 2022). Both below 100 trend. Cycle convergence as US softens (Sahm trigger, labor market normalization) + Eurozone recovers (energy crisis resolution, ECB cuts complete at 2.00%, German fiscal easing).
How reliable is the OECD CLI?+
Solid track record leading turning points 6-9 months average. Lead varies by cycle. Best as directional signal not precise timing. Most reliable used alongside other indicators (yield curve, claims, Sahm). Components: 6 series each country (US: housing starts, capital goods, consumer expectations, share prices, money supply, business surveys; Euro Area: similar adapted). Release lag 45 days from data month.
What drives US-Euro CLI divergence?+
Regional factors: (1) Fiscal policy differences (US 0T+ stimulus 2020-21 vs Eurozone restrained). (2) Energy exposure (Eurozone 40% energy imports vs US 20% diverse). (3) Sectoral composition (US tech-heavy vs Eurozone manufacturing-heavy). (4) Monetary policy timing (ECB cycles tend to lag Fed). (5) 2022-2024 Russia-Ukraine energy shock disproportionately hit Eurozone, opened +4.0pp spread. April 2026 reconverging.
How does CLI spread relate to EUR/USD?+
CLI spread correlates with EUR/USD multi-quarter. Leading economy attracts capital + strengthens currency. April 2026: US CLI 99.5 vs Euro Area 99.0. Spread compressing supports EUR strength. EUR/USD 1.168 (+11% from 2024 lows 1.05) consistent with cycle reconvergence. Forward: spread inversion (Euro above) would push EUR/USD toward 1.20-1.25.
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