UnitedHealth (UNH) vs Walmart (WMT)
UNH closed at $366.77 on April 29, 2026 with a market cap of $336.47 billion. The company beat Q1 2026 estimates with EPS of $7.23 versus $6.58 consensus and raised its full-year EPS guidance to over $18.25, up from $17.75 prior.
Also known as: UnitedHealth (UNH) (STK_UNH, UnitedHealth) · Walmart (WMT) (STK_WMT, Walmart)
Why This Comparison Matters
UNH closed at $366.77 on April 29, 2026 with a market cap of $336.47 billion. The company beat Q1 2026 estimates with EPS of $7.23 versus $6.58 consensus and raised its full-year EPS guidance to over $18.25, up from $17.75 prior. WMT closed at $126.58 with steady 5.1 percent revenue growth and ongoing e-commerce margin pressure. Both are classic defensive names but they respond to entirely different cycles: UNH to medical-loss-ratio dynamics and Medicare-Advantage policy, WMT to consumer-spending trade-down behavior. The pair reveals which kind of defensive demand is dominant.
The April 2026 Snapshot: UNH $366.77, WMT $126.58
UNH closed at $366.77 on April 29, 2026, with a market cap of $336.47 billion. Q1 2026 results: EPS $7.23 versus $6.58 consensus (a 9.9 percent beat), revenue beat. UNH raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance to more than $18.25 per share (up from $17.75 prior). Quarterly dividend $2.21 per share ($8.84 annualized, yield 2.41 percent).
WMT closed at $126.58 on April 29, 2026, with a market cap of approximately $1,020 billion. Most recent quarter revenue grew 5.1 percent year-over-year with continued margin pressure from e-commerce build-out. Quarterly dividend $0.248 ($0.99 annualized, yield 0.78 percent). WMT trades at approximately 35x forward earnings versus UNH at approximately 20x forward earnings, reflecting different growth profiles despite both being defensive.
Both Defensive, Different Defensive
UNH and WMT are both classified as defensive names with low beta to SPY (UNH approximately 0.75, WMT approximately 0.65), but they protect against different things. UNH protects against macro slowdown because medical care utilization is highly inelastic: people see doctors and take medications independently of the business cycle. WMT protects against consumer spending pressure because grocery and household staples are the last category to see spending cuts during recession.
The difference matters during stress episodes. The 2020 COVID shock initially hurt UNH (deferred elective procedures collapsed care utilization, hurting MLR margins favorable in the short-term but signaling unsustainable cost spikes later) while helping WMT (panic buying drove +20 percent comp store sales). The 2008 to 2009 GFC was the cleanest defensive divergence: UNH was approximately flat while WMT rose +18 percent. The pattern: WMT is more reliably defensive across all recession types; UNH is more defensive in slow-growth environments but vulnerable to acute care-utilization shocks.
UNH's Medicare Advantage Story: 94% of Eligibles Covered
UnitedHealthcare's 2026 Medicare Advantage plans will be available to 94 percent of Medicare eligibles, maintaining its position as the nation's largest MA carrier. The company prioritized $0 premiums on most plans, $0 copays for primary care, and Tier 1 prescription coverage with dental, vision, and hearing benefits.
Conditional Forward Response (Tail Events)
How Walmart (WMT) has historically behaved in the 5 sessions following a top-decile or bottom-decile daily move in UnitedHealth (UNH). Computed from 1,287 aligned daily observations ending .
Following these triggers, Walmart (WMT) rises 0.38% on average over the next 5 sessions, versus an unconditional baseline of +0.34%. 129 qualifying events; Walmart (WMT) closed positive in 57% of them.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the April 30, 2026 prices and earnings for UNH and WMT?+
UNH closed at $366.77 on April 29, 2026 with Q1 2026 EPS of $7.23 (beating $6.58 consensus by 9.9 percent) and raised full-year guidance to more than $18.25 per share (up from $17.75 prior). UNH dividend $2.21 quarterly ($8.84 annual, yield 2.41 percent). WMT closed at $126.58 with revenue growth of 5.1 percent year-over-year and ongoing margin pressure. WMT dividend $0.248 quarterly ($0.99 annual, yield 0.78 percent).
Why are UNH and WMT both classified as defensive?+
Both have low beta to SPY (UNH approximately 0.75, WMT approximately 0.65) and both deliver consistent revenue growth across business cycles. But they protect against different things. UNH benefits from inelastic medical-care demand (people see doctors and take medications regardless of the business cycle). WMT benefits from grocery and staples spending being the last category cut during recession. WMT is more reliably defensive across all recession types; UNH is more defensive in slow-growth environments but vulnerable to acute care-utilization shocks like the 2025 MLR squeeze.
What happened to UNH in 2025?+
UNH had one of its most challenging years in decades in 2025. Higher than expected medical-cost trend (post-COVID care normalization, GLP-1 obesity drug utilization, inpatient cost inflation) pushed medical-loss ratio to approximately 86 to 87 percent versus the historical 83 to 85 percent target. The company exited certain Medicare Advantage PPO plans serving roughly 600,000 members effective 2026 because they were unprofitable at current reimbursement rates. Stock fell from peak $620 in late 2024 to approximately $440 trough in mid-2025 (negative 29 percent peak-to-trough). The Q1 2026 EPS beat and raised guidance suggest the worst is behind, with MLR returning to the lower end of the target range.
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