OECD Leading Indicator vs St Louis Fed LEI
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
Both aim to forecast turning points but use different input baskets. OECD emphasizes equity prices, yield curves, and consumer confidence; St Louis blends factor-model outputs from financial variables. When they disagree, one framework is capturing a dynamic the other misses. Persistent alignment raises confidence in either cycle call.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: OECD Composite Leading Indicator represents OECD CLI for the US, designed to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and Leading Index for US represents conference Board Leading Economic Index, composite of 10 leading indicators, which is why this comparison sits in the peer pair category on Convex. Factor exposures embedded inside OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US drive their relative performance, with growth-value, large-small, and domestic-international all surfacing in the spread. OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US occupy the same asset class, and the relative performance between them isolates the specific factor that distinguishes one from the other.
A peer comparison like OECD Composite Leading Indicator against Leading Index for US strips out the common-factor beta and leaves behind the differences in sector mix, capitalization, style, or geography. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator-Leading Index for US spread captures the tilt between two variants of the same asset: one may be more defensive, one more cyclical. Liquidity differences between OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US produce asymmetric spread moves during risk-off episodes.
OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US look similar at a glance, but the embedded factor tilts between them matter substantially over time. Flows matter for the OECD Composite Leading Indicator-Leading Index for US relationship: when one peer attracts more capital, it outperforms on demand pressure that often mean-reverts.
90-Day Statistics
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US?+
OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US are connected through shared asset class exposure with different factor tilts. When the underlying asset class shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does OECD Composite Leading Indicator typically lead Leading Index for US?+
OECD Composite Leading Indicator tends to lead Leading Index for US during rotation episodes between the two factor exposures. In those periods, moves in OECD Composite Leading Indicator precede corresponding moves in Leading Index for US by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US varies by regime. Peers in the same asset class are highly correlated in direction, with the spread reflecting factor tilts and rotation dynamics. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the OECD Composite Leading Indicator-Leading Index for US relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US?+
Divergence between OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US typically arises from index reconstitution, mega-cap earnings surprises, or liquidity differences between the peers. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in OECD Composite Leading Indicator or Leading Index for US.
Is OECD Composite Leading Indicator a hedge for Leading Index for US?+
Peers like OECD Composite Leading Indicator and Leading Index for US do not hedge each other; both rise or fall with the shared asset class, and using the pair as a spread trade is different from using it as a hedge. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator-Leading Index for US pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
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Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.