Recession Probability vs 10Y-2Y Curve
Live side-by-side comparison with current values, changes, and key statistics.
Why This Comparison Matters
The yield curve is one input to CRPI but not the only one. When CRPI rises while curve flattens, non-curve signals (credit, sentiment, labor) are driving the model. When curve flattens without CRPI rising, other indicators are offsetting curve deterioration. Divergence reveals which components dominate.
Cross-Asset Analysis
To orient the reader: Convex Recession Probability represents convex Recession Probability Index, composite of yield curve, Sahm Rule, claims momentum, credit spreads & leading indicators. 0-100 scale and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread represents spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, classic recession signal when inverted, which is why this comparison sits in the cross asset pair category on Convex. Cross-asset pairs like Convex Recession Probability compared with 10Y-2Y Yield Spread expose the macro variables that span asset classes: liquidity, inflation, real rates, and risk appetite. Analysts pair Convex Recession Probability with 10Y-2Y Yield Spread to build cross-asset indicators that are harder to game than any single-market series.
Convex Recession Probability belongs to the Recession Indicators space, while 10Y-2Y Yield Spread belongs to Yield Curve & Rates, and the interaction between those two worlds is where the notable macro information lives. Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread come from different asset classes, and the relationship between them encodes cross-asset macro dynamics that neither alone can express. Cross-asset flows trail macro regime changes with characteristic lags, which is why spreads like Convex Recession Probability-10Y-2Y Yield Spread often lead coincident indicators.
Regime dating based on Convex Recession Probability-10Y-2Y Yield Spread can be feedback-driven, because extreme spread values often resolve via mean reversion or regime change. Correlation trading desks mark options on the Convex Recession Probability-10Y-2Y Yield Spread spread once the underlying relationship has been mapped across sufficient regimes.
90-Day Statistics
No data available
No data available
Explore Each Metric
Related Scenarios & Forecasts
Get daily macro analysis comparing key metrics delivered to your inbox. Stay ahead of market-moving divergences.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the relationship between Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread?+
Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread are connected through shared macro drivers across asset classes. When the dominant macro driver shifts, both respond, though with different sensitivities and at different speeds. The spread between Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread captures the specific macro signal that flows through this relationship.
When does Convex Recession Probability typically lead 10Y-2Y Yield Spread?+
Convex Recession Probability tends to lead 10Y-2Y Yield Spread during macro regime changes, where the more liquid asset moves first. In those periods, moves in Convex Recession Probability precede corresponding moves in 10Y-2Y Yield Spread by days to weeks, depending on the transmission channel and the depth of each market.
How are Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread historically correlated?+
Long-run correlation between Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread varies by regime. Cross-asset correlations vary by regime, tending to tighten in stress and loosen during normal conditions. The correlation is not stable: it shifts with macro conditions, and the periods when it breaks down are often the most informative moments in the Convex Recession Probability-10Y-2Y Yield Spread relationship.
What macro conditions drive divergence between Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread?+
Divergence between Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread typically arises from idiosyncratic shocks in one asset, policy interventions, or structural shifts in demand. When one asset's idiosyncratic drivers dominate, the spread moves in ways that the common macro story does not predict, which is usually a signal to look more carefully at the specific drivers at work in Convex Recession Probability or 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Is Convex Recession Probability a hedge for 10Y-2Y Yield Spread?+
Cross-asset hedges between Convex Recession Probability and 10Y-2Y Yield Spread work when the macro drivers of the two assets are sufficiently decorrelated, which depends on the regime and therefore needs to be reviewed as conditions change. Effective hedging requires matching the hedge to the specific risk being protected, and the Convex Recession Probability-10Y-2Y Yield Spread pair is best stress-tested under scenarios the investor most worries about before being sized into a real portfolio.
Related Comparisons
Data sourced from FRED, CoinGecko, CBOE, and other providers. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.